Tactical Equity Breadth Holds as Leadership Narrows

At the close, equities across our ETF universe still sat well above their 20-day moving average, but the advance remained clearly benchmark-led. We had 51 of 59 ETFs (86%, -3.4pp on the day) above their 20-day moving average, yet only 11 of 58 (19%, -1.7pp) were outperforming SPY, leaving a wide +67pp gap. That keeps leadership concentrated in US growth and technology alongside EM Asia, while low-volatility, developed ex-US, dividend and energy exposure fail to confirm; Dividend Quality SCHD and Energy XLE both lost relative ground versus SPY, and India INDA plus Covered Calls S&P JEPI fell below their 20-day moving average.

In fixed income, we moved deeper into a rotation-in-bear backdrop: 3 of 17 ETFs (18%, -23.5pp on the day) held above their 20-day moving average, while 12 of 16 (75%, unchanged on the day) still beat AGG, a -57pp abs/rel gap. High Yield HYG, High Yield Bonds JNK, Muni Bonds MUB and EM Sovereign Bonds EMB all slipped below their 20-day moving average, but the relative winners remain credit, munis, inflation-linked and short/intermediate duration, while long-duration Treasuries and Mortgage-Backed MBB lag AGG and keep the pressure centered on rate sensitivity.

Specialty improved at the close, with 12 of 15 ETFs (80%, +6.7pp on the day) above their 20-day moving average and 5 of 15 (33%, +6.7pp) outperforming SPY as clean energy, semiconductors, momentum and Bitcoin Trust IBIT led; Ethereum Trust ETHA crossed above its 20-day moving average on an 11.5% 20-day return, but it still sits in the price-recovery-without-relative-leadership camp. In commodities, Copper CPER crossed below its 20-day moving average, while oil and broad commodity exposure through USO and PDBC remain the aligned leaders across timescales.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

• Across timescales, we still see the cleanest equity relative leadership in emerging markets EEM, Taiwan EWT, South Korea EWY and US growth and tech through IWM, IYW and QQQ. By contrast, low-volatility, developed ex-US and value-oriented US exposure remain the persistent relative laggards, so many ETFs above their 20-day moving average are still only recovering in price rather than leading.

• In bonds, we have an unusually clear duration split: TIP, VTIP and PFF are the only absolute leaders, while relative strength runs through EM debt, high yield, munis, preferreds and short/intermediate duration. TLT, IEF and LQD still anchor the relative laggard list, which keeps the weak spot in rate-sensitive duration rather than in spread credit.

• Within specialty, we should separate participation from leadership. Bitcoin Trust IBIT joined clean energy ICLN, infrastructure PAVE, momentum MTUM and semiconductors SMH in the relative leader camp, whereas Ethereum Trust ETHA paired its price cross above the 20-day moving average with the strongest absolute 20-day return in this window (+11.5%) but remains a divergent name rather than a confirmed relative leader.

FEATURED ETF — iShares Ethereum Trust ETF ETHA

Other Technical Signal Events

EQUITY

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

None on the close

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

• INDA - iShares MSCI India ETF · 20D perf: +5.29%

• JEPI - JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF · +0.66%

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs SPY)

• IWF - iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF · 20D relative perf: +1.62%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs SPY)

• SCHD - Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF · 20D relative perf: -5.12%

• XLE - Energy Select Sector · -9.61%

FIXED INCOME

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

None on the close

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

• EMB - iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF · 20D perf: +1.70%

• JNK - SPDR® Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF · +0.71%

• HYG - iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF · +0.63%

• MUB - iShares National Muni Bond ETF · +0.30%

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs AGG)

• VGIT - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury · 20D relative perf: +0.26%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs AGG)

• MBB - iShares MBS ETF · 20D relative perf: unch.

SPECIALTY

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

• ETHA - iShares Ethereum Trust ETF · 20D perf: +11.45%

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

None on the close

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs SPY)

• IBIT - iShares Bitcoin · 20D relative perf: +6.58%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs SPY)

None on the close

COMMODITIES

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

None on the close

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

• CPER - United States Copper LP · 20D perf: +5.41%

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs SPY)

None on the close

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs SPY)

None on the close

Romain Gandon

CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.