Quantitative Outlook: Dividend, Value, and Metals Take the Lead

Welcome to our Quantitative Outlook, your monthly comprehensive guide to the latest trends and developments in Quantlake’s world of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

This month, we observed a rotation in equity leadership toward dividend and value strategies, while growth exposures softened. Fixed income markets remained stable, and alternatives were marked by strong gains in precious metals and a notable oil downgrade.

🔹 Equity Markets

Equity ETFs delivered mixed results in November. Dividend and value-oriented exposures outperformed, with Vanguard High Dividend Yield (VYM) up 3.5%, Schwab US Dividend Equity (SCHD) and iShares Select Dividend (DVY) each rising over 3%, and SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value (MDYV) advancing 3.2%. Large-cap growth and core benchmarks, including SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY), Vanguard 500 (VOO), and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), posted modest to negative returns, with QQQ and iShares Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) both declining. Small- and mid-cap segments showed moderate gains, while emerging markets lagged, with iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO) both retreating. All ratings remain Positive, reflecting stable conviction. Compared to last month’s growth-led advance, this period saw a visible rotation toward dividend and value strategies, while growth exposures lost momentum.

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🔹 Bond Markets

Fixed income ETFs posted steady gains across most segments in November. Short-term and intermediate Treasuries, such as iShares Short Treasury Bond (SHV) and Vanguard Short-Term Treasury (VGSH), returned 0.3–0.5%. Investment grade corporates and core aggregates, including iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) and iShares Core US Aggregate Bond (AGG), each gained around 0.6–0.9%. High yield exposures, represented by SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond (JNK), rose 0.8%. Notably, iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond (TLT) received an upgrade to Positive, joining long-duration peers. This marks a shift from last month, when TLT maintained a more cautious stance. All other ratings remain unchanged, underscoring a broadly stable environment.

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🔹 Alternative Assets

Alternative ETFs saw divergent performance in November. Precious metals led, with iShares Silver (SLV) surging 16.4% and gold ETFs advancing over 5%. Real estate exposures, including Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ) and iShares US Real Estate (IYR), rebounded with 2.4% gains. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) fell sharply, down 17.4%, while broad commodities edged higher and United States Oil Fund (USO) declined, prompting a downgrade to Negative. Compared to last month’s more balanced results, this period featured stronger precious metals momentum and a clear setback for digital assets and oil.

Takeaways

November’s cross-asset landscape highlights the value of systematic discipline and patience. As leadership rotated across equity and alternative segments, our approach remains anchored in long-term, rules-based evaluation—consistent with Quantlake’s principles.

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Happy Long-Term Investing!

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Romain Gandon, CEO & Founder of Quantlake🔗 LinkedIn‍