Growth Still Leads as Bonds Regain Balance

November 3, 2025

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Welcome to our Quantitative Outlook, your monthly comprehensive guide to the latest trends and developments in Quantlake’s world of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

October kept growth leadership intact, with large-cap and tech ETFs leading gains while value and dividend strategies trailed. Bonds stabilized as yields eased modestly, and metals rebounded, offering balance across diversified portfolios.

🔹 Equity Markets

Growth strength carried into October, but the market’s leadership stayed narrow. Large-cap benchmarks advanced steadily—SPDR S&P 500 Trust (SPY) and Vanguard 500 (VOO) each gained 2.4%, while SPDR S&P 500 ESG (EFIV) inched ahead with a 2.8% rise. Growth exposures remained firmly in charge. Invesco QQQ climbed 4.8%, iShares Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) added 3.7%, and SPDR S&P 500 Growth (SPYG) rose 3.4%. The leadership concentration at the upper end of the market shows little sign of rotation for now.

Broader benchmarks followed at a measured pace—Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI) gained 2.2% and Vanguard Total World (VT) added 2.0%. Worth noting, emerging markets continued to recover some footing: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) advanced 3.6%, while Vanguard Emerging Markets (VWO) rose 1.5%.

Dividend and value-oriented strategies lagged once again. Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity (SCHD) and iShares Select Dividend (DVY) both slipped about 2%, while SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value (MDYV) lost 1.5%. Small-caps showed uneven performance—Vanguard Small-Cap (VB) edged up 0.3%, but iShares Core S&P Small-Cap (IJR) fell 0.9%.

All ratings remain Positive, reflecting stable conviction across equity segments. What stands out this month is the continued resilience of growth leadership amid muted breadth—an environment still favoring systematic patience over tactical rotation.

🔹 Bond Markets

Long-term Treasuries found some footing in October. Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (VGLT) rose 1.3% and earned an upgrade to Positive, joining the top-rated group after months of subdued sentiment. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) matched that move with a 1.4% gain but remains Negative, reflecting lingering caution toward duration risk.

Further down the curve, conditions steadied. Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury (VGIT) and iShares 3–7 Year Treasury (IEI) each added about 0.6%, providing balance amid shifting rate expectations. Short-term exposures—SPDR Bloomberg 1–3 Month T-Bill (BIL), iShares Short Treasury Bond (SHV), and Vanguard Short-Term Treasury (VGSH)—continued to anchor portfolios with modest 0.3–0.4% gains.

What stands out this month is how calm extended across credit. Core aggregates such as iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG), Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND), and iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) gained around 0.6%, while iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond (EMB) led with a 2% advance. All other ratings remain Positive, reinforcing a stable tone across fixed income.

🔹 Alternative Assets

Precious metals regained traction in October. iShares Silver (SLV) led with a 3.9% rise, while iShares Gold (IAU) and SPDR Gold (GLD) each added 3.6%, holding steady in their Positive stance. The rebound highlights how investors continue to view metals as a reliable offset in a shifting rate environment.

Elsewhere, commodities told a more uneven story. Invesco DB Commodity Tracking (DBC) gained 1.6%, supported by broad exposure, but United States Oil Fund (USO) slipped 1.6% as energy prices eased. Real estate softened again—Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ) and iShares U.S. Real Estate (IYR) both fell 2.5%—while Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) declined 4.2%.

All ratings remain Positive, underscoring a steady stance across alternatives even as cross-asset momentum stays mixed.

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Takeaways

We see markets aligning with our long-term view—steady conviction, measured allocation, and patience over reaction. Systematic investing and discipline remain the anchors for navigating shifting trends across equities, bonds, and alternatives.

Happy Long-Term Investing!

Romain Gandon, CEO & Founder of Quantlake
🔗 LinkedIn

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About Quantlake's Ratings

Our AI-powered ratings combine market trends, economic indicators, and unstructured data analysis. Updated monthly after the last trading day, ratings fall into two categories:

Positive: Optimistic outlook suggesting maintaining or increasing exposure

Negative: Cautious view indicating potential exposure reduction