Oil Surge Extends as Gold Miners Slide

ETF flows tilted toward cyclical and commodity-linked exposures on Monday, with South Korea’s EWY rising 1.40% and oil fund USO adding 1.75%, extending a standout three-month gain of 83.3%. Defensive areas were weaker, as long Treasuries TLT fell 0.50% and gold miners GDX lost 1.85%, while crypto-linked trusts also remained under pressure.

Gold Miners tanked 1.85%

Equity ETFs

Leaders: South Korea EWY +1.40% (3M perf: +33.6%), Clean Energy ICLN +0.95% (+10.9%)
Laggards: Gold Miners GDX -1.85% (3M perf: -13.9%), China MCHI -1.19% (-8.8%)

3M Regime

Strong: South Korea EWY (3M perf: +33.6%), Semiconductors SMH (+26.9%), Taiwan EWT (+24.9%)

Weak: Gold Miners GDX (3M perf: -13.9%), Healthcare XLV (-8.9%), China MCHI (-8.8%)

Signals to Monitor

Volatility Compression: Copper Miners COPX, Dow Jones DIA, High Dividend DVY

Overbought: Taiwan EWT, Small-Cap Core IJR, US Technology IYW

Long Treasuries fell 0.50%

Fixed Income ETFs

Leaders: Short TIPS VTIP +0.08% (3M perf: +1.8%), High Yield HYG +0.04% (+0.6%)
Laggards: Long Treasuries TLT -0.50% (3M perf: -1.3%), Inv. Grade Credit LQD -0.28% (-0.4%)

3M Regime

Strong: Short TIPS VTIP (3M perf: +1.8%), TIPS TIP (+1.3%), High Yield HYG (+0.6%)

Weak: Long Treasuries TLT (3M perf: -1.2%), Inv. Grade Credit LQD (-0.4%), Global Bonds BNDX (-0.3%)

Signals to Monitor

Overbought: Short TIPS VTIP

Oil rallied 1.75%

Alternative ETFs

Leaders: Oil USO +1.75% (3M perf: +83.3%), Broad Commodities PDBC +0.90% (+24.5%)
Laggards: Ethereum Trust ETHA -1.43% (3M perf: -21.1%), Bitcoin Trust IBIT -1.04% (-12.3%)

3M Regime

Strong: Oil USO (3M perf: +83.3%), Broad Commodities PDBC (+24.5%), Agriculture Basket DBA (+7.0%)

Weak: Silver SLV (3M perf: -30.5%), Ethereum Trust ETHA (-21.1%), Bitcoin Trust IBIT (-12.3%)

Signals to Monitor

Volatility Compression: Managed Futures DBMF, Ethereum Trust ETHA, Long/Short Equity FTLS

Romain Gandon — CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.