Oil ETFs Surge as USO Leads Monday Movers

Monday’s ETF moves were led by alternatives, with oil exposure standing out as USO climbed 4.55% and broad commodities also advanced, while silver and bitcoin-related exposure lagged. In equities, gains in clean energy and infrastructure contrasted with weakness in South Korea and India, while fixed income was largely steady, with modest strength in munis and short TIPS offset by softer global bond and mortgage-backed ETFs.

South Korea pulled back 1.47%

Equity ETFs

Leaders: Clean Energy ICLN +1.29% (3M perf: +11.0%), Infrastructure PAVE +0.74% (+7.6%)
Laggards: South Korea EWY -1.47% (3M perf: +33.7%), India INDA -1.46% (-4.4%)

3M Regime

Strong: South Korea EWY (3M perf: +33.8%), Brazil EWZ (+24.5%), Taiwan EWT (+24.1%)

Weak: China MCHI (3M perf: -5.1%), Healthcare XLV (-5.0%), India INDA (-4.4%)

Signals to Monitor

Volatility Expansion: Energy XLE

Volatility Compression: Copper Miners COPX, Brazil EWZ, Biotechnology IBB

Overbought: Taiwan EWT, Small-Cap Core IJR, Russell Growth IWF

Global Bonds edged down 0.12%

Fixed Income ETFs

Leaders: Muni Bonds MUB +0.05% (3M perf: +0.6%), Short TIPS VTIP +0.04% (+1.5%)
Laggards: Global Bonds BNDX -0.12% (3M perf: +0.1%), Mortgage-Backed MBB -0.09% (+0.9%)

3M Regime

Strong: EM Sovereign Bonds EMB (3M perf: +1.7%), Short TIPS VTIP (+1.5%), TIPS TIP (+1.3%)

Weak: Preferred Stock PFF (3M perf: +0.1%), Global Bonds BNDX (+0.1%), Long Treasuries TLT (+0.2%)

Oil surged 4.55%

Alternative ETFs

Leaders: Oil USO +4.55% (3M perf: +69.3%), Broad Commodities PDBC +1.54% (+24.5%)
Laggards: Silver SLV -2.01% (3M perf: -10.9%), Bitcoin Trust IBIT -1.57% (-20.3%)

3M Regime

Strong: Oil USO (3M perf: +69.3%), Broad Commodities PDBC (+24.5%), Global REITs REET (+6.7%)

Weak: Bitcoin Trust IBIT (3M perf: -20.3%), Silver SLV (-10.9%), Copper CPER (+3.0%)

Signals to Monitor

Volatility Compression: Silver SLV

Overbought: Global REITs REET, Real Estate VNQ, Real Estate Sector XLRE

Romain Gandon — CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.