Monday Close Signals a Defensive ETF Shift

SUMMARY

At Monday's close, our ETF universe tilted more defensive as dividend equities and inflation-linked bonds reclaimed their 20-day moving averages while former equity leadership lost ground on a relative basis. The clearest pressure showed up in growth-sensitive leadership pockets, with semiconductors and momentum both slipping below their 20-day relative averages versus SPY and doing so alongside negative 20-day relative performance. At the same time, TIPS improved both absolutely and relative to core bonds, which adds to the defensive read.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

- Defensive rotation strengthened into Monday's close, led by DVY and VTIP moving back above their 20-day moving averages.

- Relative leadership weakened in key equity risk pockets as SMH and MTUM lost ground versus SPY with negative 20-day relative returns.

- Within fixed income, TIP is not just above its 20-day relative average versus AGG; the positive 20-day return points to improving leadership quality.

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TECHNICAL SIGNAL EVENTS

ABSOLUTE PRICE SIGNALS

Above 20D moving average:

DVY - iShares Select Dividend ETF

Last: $150.03 | 20D Return: -3.05%

VTIP - Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities

Last: $49.94 | 20D Return: +0.12%

RELATIVE STRENGTH SIGNALS

Above 20D moving average:

TIP / AGG - iShares TIPS Bond ETF

Ratio: 1.1142 | 20D Relative Return: +0.54%

Below 20D moving average:

MTUM / SPY - iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF

Ratio: 0.3652 | 20D Relative Return: -1.39%

SMH / SPY - VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Ratio: 0.5737 | 20D Relative Return: -3.38%