Leadership Narrows Across Our ETF Universe

At Monday's close, our ETF universe was still holding up on price, but leadership narrowed further into US growth and select Asia-linked equities. In equity, 50 of 62 ETFs (81%, -8.1pp on the day) held above their 20-day moving average, yet only 14 of 61 (23%, unchanged on the day) outperformed their benchmark, leaving a +58pp gap and a clearly benchmark-led advance. Fixed income still showed the broadest participation in our coverage, with 13 of 17 ETFs (76%, -23.5pp on the day) above their 20-day moving average and 10 of 16 (62%, -6.2pp) ahead on a relative basis, though that strength is rotating toward credit, EM debt and shorter duration rather than long Treasuries.

Alternatives are even narrower: 11 of 13 ETFs (85%, -7.7pp on the day) stayed above their 20-day moving average, but only 2 of 13 (15%, +7.7pp) beat SPY, a +69pp gap as real estate, diversified commodities and managed futures recover in price without relative sponsorship. That leaves confirmation limited across our universe, because equity leadership is concentrated in tech-heavy US names and select EM Asia while defensives, developed ex-US, and precious metals fail to confirm.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

• High Dividend DVY crossed above its 20-day moving average on a +1.9% 20-day return, but high-dividend, developed ex-US, and other cyclical value exposures still sit in the relative laggard camp. The cleaner cross-timescale equity leaders remain emerging markets EEM, Taiwan equity EWT, South Korea equity EWY, clean energy ICLN, and US growth and technology through IWM, IYW, QQQ, SMH, and XLK; Brazil EWZ, by contrast, fell back below its 20-day moving average despite a +8.9% 20-day return.

• Global Bonds BNDX and Long Treasuries TLT both crossed below their 20-day moving averages, reinforcing the fixed-income duration split already visible across timescales. Int. Treasuries IEI saw its ratio versus AGG cross above its 20-day moving average on a -0.4% 20-day relative return, which reads as early stabilization, while Inv. Grade Credit LQD saw its ratio versus AGG cross below its 20-day moving average despite a +0.7% relative return, which is better read as fading leadership; the durable winners remain EM debt, high yield, munis, preferreds, inflation-linked bonds, and short-duration credit, so this is a stability-and-spread rotation rather than a long-duration bid.

• Oil USO crossed above its ratio versus SPY 20-day moving average with a -3.8% 20-day relative return, so we would classify it as early stabilization rather than established leadership. Silver SLV crossed below its 20-day moving average on a +7.7% 20-day return, and across alternatives the bigger point is structural: diversified commodities, managed futures, and listed real estate are mostly above their moving averages but still underperforming, while USO is the only name with cross-timescale relative leadership.

FEATURED ETF — iShares MSCI Brazil ETF EWZ

Other Technical Signal Events

EQUITY

Absolute Price Signals

Above 20D moving average

• iShares Select Dividend ETF DVY (20D perf: +1.95%)

Below 20D moving average

• iShares MSCI Brazil ETF EWZ (20D perf: +8.90%)

• iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF IVLU (+6.25%)

• iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF EWU (+5.64%)

• iShares MSCI China ETF MCHI (+4.20%)

• JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF JEPI (+3.47%)

• iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF USMV (+2.69%)

FIXED INCOME

Absolute Price Signals

Below 20D moving average

• iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF LQD (20D perf: +1.97%)

• iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT (+1.15%)

• iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF IEF (+1.12%)

• Vanguard Total International Bond BNDX (+1.05%)

Relative Strength Signals (vs AGG)

Above 20D moving average

• iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF IEI (20D relative perf: -0.43%)

Below 20D moving average

• iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF LQD (20D relative perf: +0.70%)

• Vanguard Total International Bond BNDX (-0.20%)

ALTERNATIVES

Absolute Price Signals

Below 20D moving average

• iShares Silver SLV (20D perf: +7.71%)

Relative Strength Signals (vs SPY)

Above 20D moving average

• United States Oil Fund LP USO (20D relative perf: -3.83%)

Romain Gandon

CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.