Intermediate Trends: U.S. Growth Pulls Ahead as Global Equities Slip

Broad price participation, narrow benchmark leadership.

U.S. growth pulled ahead into the July 10 close as equity leadership narrowed across our ETF universe. 49 of 59 ETFs (83%, unchanged on the week) hold above their 13-week moving average (13W MA), and only 22 of 58 (38%, -13.8pp) hold above their 13-week ratio moving average vs the S&P 500 SPY (13W ratio MA vs SPY). Price participation spans low-volatility, U.S. equity, and parts of Asia. Relative winners concentrate in U.S. equity, Japan, and Taiwan, as developed ex-US, emerging markets, and international factor exposures lost ground vs the benchmark. The +45pp price-relative gap resembles a benchmark-led advance in which price recovery outruns relative confirmation.

Fixed income leadership is limited to EM debt, high yield, munis, and short duration, and 10 of 16 ETFs (62%) outperformed the Aggregate Bonds AGG on a relative basis. 3-7yr Treasuries IEI and Int. Treasuries VGIT crossed above their 13W ratio MA vs AGG from below their 13W MA, while Investment Grade Credit LQD and Long Treasuries TLT lag. The bond cross-section favors spread product and shorter or intermediate duration over rate-sensitive duration.

Specialty leadership centers on biotech, semiconductors, and momentum vs the S&P 500 SPY, while managed futures, real estate, and low-volatility equity proxies hold above their 13W MA without matching the benchmark. Copper CPER and Agriculture Basket DBA crossed above their 13W MA, while gold miners, gold, and silver fill the laggard cluster. The specialty and commodity mix favors cyclical inputs over hedges.

13-Week Intermediate Breadth

Key Takeaways

Growth IWF, up 11.20% over the trailing 13-week window, crossed above its 13-week moving average. S&P Growth SPYG crossed above its 13W ratio MA versus the S&P 500 SPY as value, dividend, and small-cap styles lost relative ground. The style spread favors large-cap growth over value and size.

Short TIPS VTIP crossed above its 13W MA and its 13W ratio MA versus Aggregate Bonds AGG, and Mortgage-Backed MBB and 3-7yr Treasuries IEI crossed above their ratio MA versus AGG from below their 13W MA. Investment Grade Credit LQD and Corporate Credit VCIT crossed below their 13W ratio MA versus AGG, and Long Treasuries TLT crossed below its 13W MA. The duration split favors short duration and defensive intermediates over long duration and investment grade credit.

Covered Calls Nasdaq JEPQ crossed above its 13W ratio MA versus the S&P 500 SPY, and Managed Futures DBMF crossed above its 13W MA even as its relative read lags the benchmark. Copper CPER and Agriculture Basket DBA posted the commodity price crosses, while copper, broad commodities, and silver fill the multi-horizon laggard cluster. The specialty and commodity mix rewards selective cyclicals, and broad hedge exposures lag.

FEATURED ETF: iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF IWF

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	EFAV	iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF	-2.0%
Cross-up	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	+11.2%
Cross-down	EWG	iShares MSCI Germany ETF	+1.7%
Cross-down	XLB	Materials Select Sector	-1.7%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	+3.2%
Cross-down	VB	Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF	-1.3%
Cross-down	URTH	iShares MSCI World ETF	-1.8%
Cross-down	MDYG	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF	-2.7%
Cross-down	SPYV	S&P 500 Value ETF	-3.6%
Cross-down	SCHD	Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF	-4.1%
Cross-down	MDYV	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF	-4.1%
Cross-down	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	-6.9%
Cross-down	IQLT	iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF	-7.0%
Cross-down	VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe Index ETF	-7.4%

Fixed Income: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	VTIP	Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF	+0.5%
Cross-down	VCIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	-0.2%
Cross-down	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	-0.3%
Cross-down	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	-0.5%
Cross-down	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	-0.5%
Cross-down	VGIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF	-0.5%
Cross-down	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	-0.7%
Cross-down	TLT	iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF	-1.2%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	VGIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF	-0.3%
Cross-up	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	-0.2%
Cross-up	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	unch.
Cross-up	VTIP	Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF	+0.8%
Cross-down	VCIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	unch.
Cross-down	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	-0.2%

Specialty: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	DBMF	iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF	+2.1%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	-2.9%
Cross-down	REET	iShares Global REIT ETF	-4.9%
Cross-down	USMV	iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF	-5.1%
Cross-down	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF	-5.2%

Commodities: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	DBA	Invesco DB Agriculture	+3.3%
Cross-up	CPER	United States Copper LP	+5.9%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.