Intermediate Trends: Technology and Growth Break as Defensive Leaders Broaden

Relative leadership rotates to value and defense across our ETF universe

Defensive rotation defines the July 17 close, with 37 of 59 equity ETFs (63%, -20.3pp on the week) above their 13-week moving average (13W MA) and 33 of 58 (57%, +19.0pp) above their 13-week ratio moving average vs the S&P 500 SPY (13W ratio MA vs SPY). Low-volatility, quality, and value exposures lead on both price and relative terms. Emerging markets, Asia-Pacific equity, and US growth fill the laggard cluster. The +6pp price-relative gap is narrow and narrowing, so price participation and relative leadership converge around defensive and value exposures.

Fixed income leadership is limited to credit and intermediate duration, with 10 of 16 ETFs ahead of the Aggregate Bonds AGG and leaders drawn from high yield, short duration, and intermediate Treasuries. Long duration, mortgages, and preferreds fill the laggard cluster. The bond cross-section rewards stability and selective credit.

Specialty leadership is limited to min-volatility, real estate, and alternative strategies. Precious metals, clean energy, and high-beta equity themes populate the laggard cluster. Copper crossed below its 13W MA, and commodity leadership tilted toward agriculture. These specialty and commodity signals center on diversifiers, with cyclical beta on the weak side.

13-Week Intermediate Breadth

Key Takeaways

Semiconductors SMH, up 19.90% over the trailing 13-week window, crossed below its 13-week moving average. SMH also crossed below its 13W ratio MA versus the S&P 500 SPY. The fund now sits in the specialty laggard cluster.

Dividend Quality SCHD, S&P Value SPYV, and Energy XLE crossed above their 13W ratio MA versus the S&P 500 SPY. Cross-timescale equity leadership concentrates in value, quality, and smaller-cap US exposure, and the 46% alignment keeps the rotation selective.

3-7yr Treasuries IEI crossed above its 13W MA, and 7-10yr Treasuries IEF crossed above its 13W ratio MA versus the Aggregate Bonds AGG from below its own 13W MA. Agriculture Basket DBA crossed above its 13W ratio MA versus the S&P 500 SPY. Defensive duration and agriculture define the non-equity leader set.

FEATURED ETF: VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	IDV	iShares International Select Dividend ETF	unch.
Cross-up	XLE	Energy Select Sector	+5.6%
Cross-down	EWT	iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF	+17.0%
Cross-down	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	+13.9%
Cross-down	XLK	Technology Select Sector	+13.9%
Cross-down	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	+7.3%
Cross-down	EWY	iShares MSCI South Korea ETF	+6.7%
Cross-down	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	+4.8%
Cross-down	MDYG	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF	+2.6%
Cross-down	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	+0.9%
Cross-down	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF	+0.6%
Cross-down	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	+0.3%
Cross-down	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF	unch.
Cross-down	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	-1.1%
Cross-down	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF	-2.1%
Cross-down	INDA	iShares MSCI India ETF	-4.6%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF	-6.0%
Cross-up	EFAV	iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF	-5.3%
Cross-up	JEPI	JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF	-4.7%
Cross-up	ACWV	iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF	-4.3%
Cross-up	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	-4.1%
Cross-up	VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe Index ETF	-3.9%
Cross-up	IQLT	iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF	-3.7%
Cross-up	IVLU	iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF	-3.1%
Cross-up	XLRE	The Real Estate Select Sector	-1.8%
Cross-up	URTH	iShares MSCI World ETF	-1.1%
Cross-up	VYM	Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF	-1.0%
Cross-up	XLP	Consumer Staples Select Sector	-0.9%
Cross-up	VB	Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF	-0.5%
Cross-up	SPYV	S&P 500 Value ETF	+0.2%
Cross-up	MDYV	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF	+0.2%
Cross-up	XLE	Energy Select Sector	+0.6%
Cross-up	SCHD	Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF	+1.8%
Cross-down	EWT	iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF	+11.5%
Cross-down	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	+8.6%
Cross-down	XLK	Technology Select Sector	+8.5%
Cross-down	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	+2.2%
Cross-down	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	-0.2%
Cross-down	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	-3.9%

Fixed Income: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	VGIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF	-0.9%
Cross-up	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	-0.8%
Cross-down	MUB	iShares National Muni Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-down	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF	-0.1%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	-0.5%
Cross-up	VCIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	unch.
Cross-down	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF	+0.5%
Cross-down	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	-0.1%

Specialty: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-down	SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	+19.9%
Cross-down	MTUM	iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF	+10.2%
Cross-down	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	+2.8%
Cross-down	PAVE	Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF	+2.4%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	USMV	iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF	-2.7%
Cross-up	FTLS	First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF	-1.4%
Cross-up	DBMF	iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF	-1.3%
Cross-up	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF	-0.5%
Cross-up	REET	iShares Global REIT ETF	-0.2%
Cross-down	SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	+14.3%
Cross-down	MTUM	iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF	+5.0%
Cross-down	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	-2.1%

Commodities: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-down	CPER	United States Copper LP	+1.7%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	DBA	Invesco DB Agriculture	-1.4%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.