Intermediate Trends: Ex-US Equity Leads as U.S. Relative Strength Slips

Price participation is broad; only 38% of equity ETFs beat the S&P 500 SPY.

Broad equity price participation masks a sharp relative contraction as of August 28: 54 of 59 equity ETFs (92%, -1.7pp on the week just closed) hold above their 13-week moving average (13W MA), but only 22 of 58 (38%, -19.0pp) hold above their 13-week ratio moving average vs the S&P 500 SPY, a 54pp price-relative gap.

Low-volatility, developed ex-US, and selected China and Taiwan exposures lead on a benchmark-relative basis, while U.S. broad market, size, dividend, and momentum cohorts fill the laggard cluster. Equity prices are broad; benchmark-relative leadership is selective.

Fixed income leadership is limited to 7 of 16 ETFs above their 13W ratio MA vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG, concentrated in high-yield credit, Preferred Stock PFF, and short duration. Long duration, investment grade, EM debt, and TIPS lag. Bond participation concentrates in credit and short duration. Duration strength is limited to defensive relative pockets.

Specialty leadership clusters in gold, biotech, and bitcoin on both price and relative measures vs the S&P 500 SPY, while real estate and clean energy fill the laggard cluster. Oil, broad commodities, and agriculture lead the commodity bucket. Copper CPER crossed below its 13W ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Strength outside core equity concentrates in hard assets and digital assets.

13-Week Intermediate Breadth

Key Takeaways

South Korea EWY, down 12.45% over the trailing 13-week window, crossed above its 13-week moving average. Taiwan EWT crossed above its 13W ratio MA versus the S&P 500 SPY, and Communication Services XLC crossed above its 13W ratio MA versus SPY. The regional picture separates price recovery from relative leadership.

Preferred Stock PFF crossed above its 13W MA. Intermediate Treasuries VGIT and TIPS TIP crossed below their 13W ratio MA versus the Aggregate Bonds AGG, while high-yield credit aligns across daily, weekly, and monthly relative measures through HYG and JNK. Bond leadership favors credit spread exposure, and duration strength is confined to defensive pockets.

Managed futures and option-income specialty funds hold above their 13W MA and lag the S&P 500 SPY on a relative basis. Global REITs REET and Real Estate VNQ crossed below their 13W MA, and Copper CPER crossed below its 13W ratio MA versus the S&P 500 SPY. Specialty and commodity strength concentrates in hard assets, digital assets, and energy-linked exposures.

FEATURED ETF: iShares MSCI South Korea ETF EWY

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	EWY	iShares MSCI South Korea ETF	-12.5%
Cross-up	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	-2.9%
Cross-down	SLYG	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF	+4.9%
Cross-down	XLRE	The Real Estate Select Sector	+2.0%
Cross-down	MDYG	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF	-0.3%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	-4.0%
Cross-up	EWT	iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF	+3.0%
Cross-down	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	+4.5%
Cross-down	SDY	SPDR S&P Dividend ETF	+4.2%
Cross-down	JEPI	JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF	+3.2%
Cross-down	VO	Vanguard Mid-Cap Index ETF	+2.8%
Cross-down	VIG	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF	+2.0%
Cross-down	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	+2.0%
Cross-down	VYM	Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF	+1.8%
Cross-down	VB	Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF	+0.8%
Cross-down	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF	+0.4%
Cross-down	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	+0.2%
Cross-down	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF	+0.2%
Cross-down	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	unch.
Cross-down	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	unch.

Fixed Income: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	-1.9%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-down	VGIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF	+0.1%
Cross-down	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond ETF	-0.5%

Specialty: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-down	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF	+2.5%
Cross-down	REET	iShares Global REIT ETF	+2.2%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-down	CPER	United States Copper LP	+0.1%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.