Intermediate Trends: Equity Leadership Rotates Away From US Growth

A 36pp price-relative gap leaves confirmation selective.

Equity leadership rotated away from US growth by the August 21 close. Across our ETF universe, 55 of 59 equity ETFs (93%, -1.7pp on the week) hold above their 13-week moving average (13W MA), while 33 of 58 (57%, +3.5pp) outperform the S&P 500 SPY on a 13-week ratio moving average vs SPY (13W ratio MA vs SPY) basis; the 36pp price-relative gap narrowed from 42pp. Developed ex-US, dividend, and quality improved against the benchmark, while Nasdaq 100 QQQ and small caps lost relative ground. The equity cross-section shows broad price participation with only partial relative confirmation.

Fixed income leadership is limited to high-yield credit and short duration, with 4 of 17 ETFs above their 13W MA. Against the Aggregate Bonds AGG, intermediate Treasuries and TIPS outperform, while investment grade and long duration lag. The bond cross-section favors lower-duration stability and selective credit, and rate-sensitive participation is sparse.

Specialty leadership clusters in gold, biotech, and bitcoin-linked exposure, with 11 of 15 specialty ETFs above their 13W MA. Gold GLD and Bitcoin Trust IBIT beat the S&P 500 SPY, and Oil USO plus copper improved against the S&P 500 SPY in commodities. Real assets and selective alternative exposure anchor the non-equity leadership mix.

13-Week Intermediate Breadth

Key Takeaways

United Kingdom EWU, Dividend Growth VIG, and S&P Value SPYV crossed above their 13W ratio MA versus the S&P 500 SPY, while Technology XLK, S&P Growth SPYG, and Russell 2000 IWM crossed below. Cross-timescale equity alignment is 76%, and the aligned relative leaders cluster in global equity, quality, and value. The intermediate leadership base sits outside US growth.

3-7yr Treasuries IEI and Int. Treasuries VGIT fell below their 13W MA, even as TIPS TIP crossed above its 13W ratio MA versus the Aggregate Bonds AGG and EM Sovereign Bonds EMB crossed below. High-yield credit HYG and JNK plus short-duration VCSH define the price leaders across our coverage. The bond split favors lower-duration stability and selective credit, and long-duration rate sensitivity lags.

Against the S&P 500 SPY, Silver SLV, down 10.89% relative to SPY over the trailing 13-week window, crossed above its 13-week ratio moving average. Gold GLD and Oil USO posted the same ratio signal versus the S&P 500 SPY. Bitcoin Trust IBIT paired a ratio cross above the S&P 500 SPY with a price cross above its 13W MA. Real-asset leadership spans precious metals, energy, and crypto-linked exposure.

FEATURED ETF: iShares Silver SLV vs SPY

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil ETF	-2.7%
Cross-down	XLI	Industrial Select Sector	+5.2%
Cross-down	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	-0.5%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	MCHI	iShares MSCI China ETF	-2.0%
Cross-up	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	-1.2%
Cross-up	IDV	iShares International Select Dividend ETF	-0.1%
Cross-up	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	+0.4%
Cross-up	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	+0.7%
Cross-up	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	+1.3%
Cross-up	SPYV	S&P 500 Value ETF	+1.4%
Cross-up	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF	+1.7%
Cross-up	JEPI	JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF	+1.9%
Cross-up	VIG	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF	+2.1%
Cross-up	EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF	+2.4%
Cross-up	SDY	SPDR S&P Dividend ETF	+3.3%
Cross-up	XLB	Materials Select Sector	+3.8%
Cross-down	EWT	iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF	+4.6%
Cross-down	SLYG	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF	+4.5%
Cross-down	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF	+4.4%
Cross-down	SLYV	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF	+4.3%
Cross-down	IWM	iShares Russell 2000 ETF	+2.4%
Cross-down	XLI	Industrial Select Sector	+2.2%
Cross-down	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	+1.5%
Cross-down	MDYG	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF	+0.4%
Cross-down	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	-0.6%
Cross-down	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	-1.2%
Cross-down	XLK	Technology Select Sector	-1.2%

Fixed Income: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-down	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	+0.3%
Cross-down	VGIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF	+0.3%
Cross-down	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	-1.1%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-down	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	+0.9%

Specialty: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	+1.7%
Cross-down	PAVE	Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF	+2.8%
Cross-down	MTUM	iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF	+0.6%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	-1.2%
Cross-up	GLD	SPDR Gold	-0.6%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	SLV	iShares Silver	-10.9%
Cross-up	USO	United States Oil Fund LP	-7.2%
Cross-up	CPER	United States Copper LP	-0.2%
Cross-up	DBA	Invesco DB Agriculture	-0.2%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.