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October 5, 2026
2 min read
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Brazil EWZ Surged 12.54%

Monday delivered a pro-cyclical rotation. Brazil EWZ led, and leadership concentrated in higher-beta risk assets.

International equities led

Movers

Leaders: Brazil EWZ +12.54% (3M: +24.1%), China MCHI +2.03% (3M: +1.0%)

Laggards: Real Estate XLRE -0.34% (3M: -8.6%), Value Factor VLUE -0.22% (3M: +4.6%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Brazil EWZ +24.1%, Energy XLE +16.8%, Taiwan EWT +15.8%

Weak: Utilities XLU -11.9%, Real Estate XLRE -8.6%, Industrials XLI -6.5%

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 equity ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 5 Oct 2026; ending at EWZ Brazil +24.1%, VLUE Value Factor +4.6%, MCHI China +1.0%, XLRE Real Estate -8.6%

Counter-trend rally in EM and muni debt, duration lagged

Movers

Leaders: EM Sovereign Bonds EMB +0.22% (3M: -4.5%), Muni Bonds MUB +0.16% (3M: -4.9%)

Laggards: Long Treasuries TLT -0.48% (3M: -7.7%), Preferred Stock PFF -0.24% (3M: -1.9%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Short TIPS VTIP -0.6%, Short Corporate VCSH -0.9%, Global Bonds BNDX -1.8%

Weak: Long Treasuries TLT -7.7%, Muni Bonds MUB -4.9%, EM Sovereign Bonds EMB -4.5%

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 fixed income ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 5 Oct 2026; ending at PFF Preferred Stock -1.9%, EMB EM Sovereign Bonds -4.5%, MUB Muni Bonds -4.9%, TLT Long Treasuries -7.7%

Crypto proxies led, real estate weakness deepened

Movers

Leaders: Bitcoin Trust IBIT +1.74% (3M: +34.3%), Ethereum Trust ETHA +1.59% (3M: +51.2%)

Laggards: Global REITs REET -0.43% (3M: -8.4%), Gold Miners GDX -0.41% (3M: +15.4%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Ethereum Trust ETHA +51.2%, Bitcoin Trust IBIT +34.3%, Gold Miners GDX +15.4%

Weak: Clean Energy ICLN -10.6%, Real Estate VNQ -8.6%, Global REITs REET -8.4%

Line chart: 3-month performance of 4 specialty ETFs, the day's leaders and laggards, to 5 Oct 2026; ending at ETHA Ethereum Trust +51.2%, IBIT Bitcoin Trust +34.3%, GDX Gold Miners +15.4%, REET Global REITs -8.4%

Technical Signals

AssetSetupInstrumentsRead
EquityExhaustion RiskBrazil EWZ3M leaders, flashing overbought
Volatility CompressionGlobal Min Vol ACWV, Copper Miners COPX, Emg. Markets EEM
OverboughtBrazil EWZ, US Technology IYW, Technology XLK
OversoldIntl High Dividend IDV, Real Estate XLRE
Fixed IncomeCounter-trend RallyEM Sovereign Bonds EMB and Muni Bonds MUBtoday's leaders, 3M laggards
Volatility ExpansionAggregate Bonds AGG, Global Bonds BNDX, EM Sovereign Bonds EMB
OversoldAggregate Bonds AGG, EM Sovereign Bonds EMB, High Yield HYG
SpecialtyTrend-break RiskGold Miners GDX2nd-weakest today -0.41%, 3M leader +15.4%
Reversal SetupClean Energy ICLNvol compression building in 3M underperformers
Volatility CompressionGold Miners GDX, Clean Energy ICLN, Covered Calls Nasdaq JEPQ
Volatility ExpansionManaged Futures DBMF
OverboughtManaged Futures DBMF, Covered Calls Nasdaq JEPQ
OversoldGlobal REITs REET, Real Estate VNQ

Exhaustion Risk: in our top three over three months, with its RSI above 70.
Counter-trend Rally: one of the day's two strongest, and in our bottom three over three months.
Trend-break Risk: one of the day's two weakest, and in our top three over three months.
Reversal Setup: in our bottom three over three months, with volatility more than 1 standard deviation below its own norm.

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Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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