Growth vs. Value: Which One Deserves Your Portfolio?

In today's market, investors often debate between growth and value. Should you favor SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF SPYV, which tracks value stocks with characteristics like lower price-to-book ratios, or SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF SPYG, which focuses on companies with stronger earnings growth potential? Or should you simply hold T-Bills while waiting for clearer signals? Our answer isn’t about gut feelings. It’s about data.

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📊 Why it matters:

Outperformance shifts over time—sometimes growth dominates, sometimes value shines. Comparing them helps you understand sector biases, risk, and reward potential.

Making systematic, data-driven decisions beats emotional investing.

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🚀 Current Market Insights: Growth Takes the Lead

🔹 Momentum: SPYG’s 10-month return (23.8%) outpaces SPYV’s (9.7%).

🔹 Relative Strength: The SPYV/SPYG ratio's RSI is at 33.3, with a declining trend, favoring growth.

🔹 Volatility Profile: Surprisingly, SPYG (9.8%) has been less volatile than SPYV (12.6%) over 10 months.

🔹 Up Market Participation: Historically, SPYV has captured 78% of SPYG’s gains, but in the past year, that’s dropped to 42%—growth is leading.

🔹 Risk-Adjusted Returns: SPYV’s defensive profile (beta 0.49, down-capture 16%) has not offset SPYG’s superior returns.

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🤖 Quantlake Model Allocation (as of 02-2025)

💡 Current preference:

✅ SPYG: 100% since 02-2024

❌ SPYV: 0%

❌ T-BILL: 0%

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📈 Long-Term Performance: Systematic Strategy Wins

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Key Stats (Since 09-2000):

CAGR: Quantlake 9.7% | SPYV 7.5% | SPYG 6.8%

Max Drawdown: Quantlake -24.5% | SPYV -53.6% | SPYG -65.1%

Sharpe Ratio: Quantlake 0.68 | SPYV 0.38 | SPYG 0.29

Sortino Ratio: Quantlake 1.02 | SPYV 0.53 | SPYG 0.38

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📊 1-Year Rolling Metrics:

Return: Quantlake 26.9% | SPYV 8.1% | SPYG 26.9%

Sharpe Ratio: Quantlake 2.51 | SPYV 0.56 | SPYG 2.51

Sortino Ratio: Quantlake 6.05 | SPYV 0.79 | SPYG 6.05

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📊 3-Year Rolling Metrics:

Return: Quantlake 29.6% | SPYV 35.3% | SPYG 43.3%

Sharpe Ratio: Quantlake 0.54 | SPYV 0.56 | SPYG 0.60

Sortino Ratio: Quantlake 0.79 | SPYV 0.86 | SPYG 0.85

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💰 Expense Ratios Matter

SPYV: 0.040%

SPYG: 0.040%

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🎯 What This Means for You

If you're following a data-driven strategy, SPYG currently holds the edge. Momentum, risk-adjusted returns, and lower volatility all favor growth over value. Our model recognizes these conditions and allocates accordingly, avoiding value and T-Bills for now. But trends shift. Sticking to a systematic approach ensures you're adapting to market changes—without chasing performance or making emotional decisions.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. All data is based on backtested models and may not reflect real-world trading conditions.