Daily Movers: Ethereum Trust ETHA Rose 7.2%

The session fit a pro-cyclical rotation. Ethereum Trust ETHA rose 7.16% and Bitcoin Trust IBIT gained 5.13%, with both still oversold, as South Korea EWY climbed 5.96% and Taiwan EWT advanced 2.40%. Utilities XLU fell 1.87% and Real Estate XLRE lost 1.50%. Long Treasuries TLT declined 0.52% as High Yield HYG edged up 0.14%, and vol remains compressed across HYG, Emerging Markets Bond EMB, and developed ex-US equity EFA.

Equity: North Asia leads, defensives lag

Today's Movers

Leaders: South Korea EWY +5.96% (3M: +38.7%), Taiwan EWT +2.40% (3M: +41.9%)

Laggards: Utilities XLU -1.87% (3M: -6.5%), Real Estate Sector XLRE -1.50% (3M: +3.1%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Taiwan EWT +41.9%, South Korea EWY +38.6%, Value Factor VLUE +35.1%

Weak: Brazil EWZ -9.2%, China MCHI -6.5%, Utilities XLU -6.5%

Fixed Income: Credit leads, duration stays under pressure

Today's Movers

Leaders: Preferred Stock PFF +0.19% (3M: +0.7%), High Yield HYG +0.14% (3M: +0.7%)

Laggards: Long Treasuries TLT -0.52% (3M: -4.1%), EM Sovereign Bonds EMB -0.13% (3M: +0.6%)

3M Leaderboard (within FI scale)

Strong: High Yield Bonds JNK +1.0%, High Yield HYG +0.7%, Short TIPS VTIP +0.7%

Weak: Long Treasuries TLT -4.1%, 7-10yr Treasuries IEF -2.4%, Int. Treasuries VGIT -1.7%

Specialty: Crypto rebounds, clean energy and real estate lag

Today's Movers

Leaders: Ethereum Trust ETHA +7.16% (3M: -17.2%), Bitcoin Trust IBIT +5.13% (3M: -8.3%)

Laggards: Clean Energy ICLN -1.50% (3M: +16.9%), Real Estate VNQ -1.36% (3M: +2.9%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Semiconductors SMH +51.7%, Momentum Factor MTUM +27.6%, Clean Energy ICLN +16.9%

Weak: Gold Miners GDX -23.2%, Ethereum Trust ETHA -17.2%, Gold GLD -15.9%

Notable Setups

Equity — Volatility Compression: Global Min Vol ACWV, High Dividend DVY, Dev. Markets EFA

Equity — Oversold: Brazil EWZ

Fixed Income — Volatility Compression: Global Bonds BNDX, EM Sovereign Bonds EMB, High Yield HYG

Specialty — Counter-trend rally: Ethereum Trust ETHA (top mover today +7.16%, 3M laggard -17.2%)

Specialty — Trend-break risk: Clean Energy ICLN (top decliner today -1.50%, 3M leader +16.9%)

Specialty — Volatility Compression: Long/Short Equity FTLS, Infrastructure PAVE, Min Volatility USMV

Specialty — Volatility Expansion: Semiconductors SMH

Specialty — Oversold: Ethereum Trust ETHA, Bitcoin Trust IBIT

Cross-Asset Read

Pro-cyclical rotation defined the session: cyclically sensitive equity and crypto exposures outperformed while duration and defensives lagged. ETHA and IBIT remain oversold against still-negative 3M trends, while EWY and EWT remain extended atop the equity leaderboard, leaving the advance narrow and stress-prone. The unresolved signal is the compression cluster in HYG, EMB, and EFA; resolution from that low-vol regime determines whether the pro-cyclical rotation broadens or stalls.

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.