Weekly Intermediate: Equity Leadership Narrows as Credit Broadens

Price participation rose, but relative confirmation kept slipping

Across the week just closed, our equity universe became even more benchmark-led. We finished with 51 of 59 ETFs (86%, +3.4pp) held above their 13-week moving average, yet only 10 of 58 (17%, -3.5pp) outperformed their benchmark, leaving a 69pp gap. Leadership narrowed toward US growth and emerging Asia, while developed ex-US, dividend-heavy US equity and copper-linked cyclicals recovered in price without confirming in relative strength.

Fixed income delivered the cleaner confirmation. 13 of 17 ETFs (76%, +29.4pp) held above their 13-week moving average and 12 of 16 (75%, +12.5pp) beat AGG, with credit, mortgages, EM debt, munis and short-duration improving together while Treasuries and long duration remained the main laggards. The split is rate-sensitive rather than a credit-quality problem.

Specialty held up in price while leadership weakened, with 12 of 15 ETFs (80%, unchanged on the week) above their 13-week moving average as relative breadth slipped to 5 of 15 (33%, -6.7pp). Semiconductors, momentum and crypto-linked exposures carried the bucket. Commodities were selective rather than broad: Silver SLV crossed above its 13-week moving average, while Broad Commodities PDBC crossed below its 13-week ratio moving average versus SPY, which limits confirmation outside the strongest pockets.

13-Week Intermediate Breadth

Key Takeaways

• China Large Cap FXI and Copper Miners COPX reclaimed their 13-week moving averages, yet we frame those as price recovery rather than leadership because international and cyclical rebounds still sit in the divergent bucket across our equity coverage. That same loss of quality hit relative small caps, where Small-Cap Core IJR and S&P SmallCap Growth SLYG crossed below their 13-week ratio moving averages versus SPY.

• Global Bonds BNDX, Investment Grade Credit LQD, Corporate Credit VCIT and Mortgage-Backed MBB all crossed above their 13-week moving averages, while BNDX and LQD also moved above their ratio moving averages versus AGG. Because both ratio moves come with slightly negative 13-week relative returns, we treat them as early stabilization; the stronger confirmation still sits in credit and EM debt, while short-duration strength speaks more to stability than to risk appetite and Treasuries remain the clear rate-sensitive laggards.

• Biotechnology IBB crossed back above its 13-week moving average as specialty leadership stayed concentrated in semiconductors, momentum and crypto-linked exposures, while Infrastructure PAVE lost relative ground versus SPY and Min Volatility USMV fell below its 13-week moving average. Broad Commodities PDBC with a +18.32% period relative return versus SPY crossed below its 13-week ratio moving average. Silver SLV crossed above its 13-week moving average.

FEATURED ETF — Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF PDBC vs SPY

Other Technical Signal Events

EQUITY

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 13W MA)

• INDA - iShares MSCI India ETF · 13W perf: -6.5%

• MCHI - iShares MSCI China ETF · -5.4%

• FXI - iShares China Large-Cap ETF · -5.0%

• COPX - Global X Copper Miners ETF · +1.5%

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 13W MA)

• XLE - Energy Select Sector · 13W perf: +5.3%

• XLU - Utilities Select Sector · +3.9%

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 13W MA vs SPY)

None for the week

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 13W MA vs SPY)

• SLYG - SPDR® S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF · 13W relative perf: unch.

• IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF · -2.0%

FIXED INCOME

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 13W MA)

• BNDX - Vanguard Total International Bond · 13W perf: -0.2%

• LQD - iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF · unch.

• VCIT - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond · unch.

• MBB - iShares MBS ETF · +0.4%

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 13W MA)

None for the week

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 13W MA vs AGG)

• BNDX - Vanguard Total International Bond · 13W relative perf: -0.2%

• LQD - iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF · -0.1%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 13W MA vs AGG)

None for the week

SPECIALTY

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 13W MA)

• IBB - iShares Biotechnology ETF · 13W perf: -2.8%

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 13W MA)

• USMV - iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF · 13W perf: -1.7%

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 13W MA vs SPY)

None for the week

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 13W MA vs SPY)

• PAVE - Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF · 13W relative perf: -3.0%

COMMODITIES

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 13W MA)

• SLV - iShares Silver · 13W perf: +4.0%

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 13W MA)

None for the week

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 13W MA vs SPY)

None for the week

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 13W MA vs SPY)

• PDBC - Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF · 13W relative perf: +18.3%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.