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Tactical Trends: Value and Overseas Equity Lose the 20-Day Line
US growth, healthcare, and Taiwan define the remaining equity leaders.
Equity participation weakened at the September 24 close as emerging markets, Japan, South Korea, and value lost their 20-day averages. Across our ETF universe, 11 of 59 equity ETFs (19%, -5.1pp on the day) hold above their 20-day moving average (20D MA), and 9 of 58 (16%, +1.7pp) outperform the S&P 500 SPY. Leadership is limited to US growth, Taiwan equity, healthcare, communication services, and quality. Broad US equity is the divergent pocket, with price above the 20-day average and the ratio below its ratio MA vs SPY.
Fixed income leadership is limited to intermediate Treasuries, short duration, high yield, preferreds, and international aggregate against the Aggregate Bonds AGG. Price participation is absent, with 0 of 17 above their 20-day average. Long duration, investment grade, mortgages, and inflation-linked bonds fill the laggard side.
Specialty leadership is limited to biotechnology, semiconductors, momentum, and crypto-linked exposures against the S&P 500 SPY. Gold, clean energy, listed real estate, and minimum volatility fill the laggard side. A US long/short equity exposure is above its 20-day average and below its ratio MA vs its benchmark. Oil, broad commodities, and copper lead the commodity group on both price and relative terms.
20-Day Tactical Breadth
Key Takeaways
Biotechnology IBB, down 2.77% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20D MA. Its ratio vs the S&P 500 SPY also crossed above its ratio MA, and the trailing 20-day relative return is down 3.15%.
Communication Services XLC and Healthcare XLV crossed above their ratio MAs vs the S&P 500 SPY. Cross-timescale equity alignment is 37%. Taiwan equity, US growth, technology, and healthcare rank on the leader lists across the daily, weekly, and monthly horizons. Developed ex-US, China, low-volatility, and value-oriented US equity fill the laggard side.
3-7yr Treasuries IEI and Int. Treasuries VGIT crossed above their ratio MAs vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG. Relative winners are concentrated in intermediate Treasuries, short duration, high yield, preferreds, and international aggregate. Long duration, investment grade, mortgages, and inflation-linked bonds occupy the laggard side.
Featured ETF: iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB
Technical Signal Alerts
Equity: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | XLV | Health Care Select Sector | -1.74% |
| Cross-down | EWY | iShares MSCI South Korea ETF | +1.87% |
| Cross-down | EWJ | iShares MSCI Japan ETF | +0.40% |
| Cross-down | EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | +0.12% |
| Cross-down | VLUE | iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF | -0.22% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | XLV | Health Care Select Sector | -2.12% |
| Cross-up | XLC | Communication Services Select Sector | +1.16% |
| Cross-down | EWY | iShares MSCI South Korea ETF | +1.47% |
Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | VGIT | Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF | unch. |
| Cross-up | IEI | iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | +0.17% |
Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | -2.77% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | IBB | iShares Biotechnology ETF | -3.15% |
Related
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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