Tactical Trends: Value and Ex-US Rebound as Relative Winners Thin

Price breadth reset higher; SPY-relative leadership concentrates.

Value and developed ex-US equity regained traction across our ETF universe by the July 21 close, with 36 of 59 ETFs (61%, +28.8pp on the day) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and 21 of 58 ETFs (36%, -5.2pp) above their 20-day ratio moving average vs the S&P 500 SPY (20D ratio MA vs SPY). Low-volatility, dividend, and developed ex-US exposures fill the leader cluster. Small-cap, growth, and Asia-Pacific exposures lag the benchmark, and the price-relative gap is 25pp. The equity configuration resembles a price rebound that outruns benchmark-relative leadership.

Fixed income leadership is benchmark-relative, with 11 of 16 ETFs above their 20D ratio MA vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG and only VTIP above its 20D MA. Credit, mortgages, and short duration outperform the benchmark. 7-10yr Treasuries IEF and long duration lag. Bond leadership concentrates in spread product and shorter duration.

Specialty leadership centers on Gold GLD and real estate, with 7 of 15 ETFs above their 20D ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY, and Covered Calls Nasdaq JEPQ trades above its 20D MA and lags the benchmark. Commodity cross-timescale alignment is 100%, led by copper, broad commodities, and oil, with silver as the laggard. The specialty and commodity mix concentrates in hard assets and real estate.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Copper Miners COPX, down 7.52% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20-day moving average. COPX also crossed above its 20D ratio MA versus the S&P 500 SPY after a 20-day relative return of down 8.00%. Copper now shows simultaneous price recovery and relative stabilization.

Equity cross-timescale alignment is 56%, with High Dividend VYM, Dividend Growth VIG, and Intl Value IVLU in the relative leader cluster and Germany equity, India equity, and growth exposure in the laggard cluster. The alignment map places value and income at the center of leadership.

Bond cross-timescale alignment is 65%. EM Sovereign Bonds EMB, Mortgage-Backed MBB, and short-duration exposure lead versus the Aggregate Bonds AGG, while 7-10yr Treasuries IEF, investment-grade credit, and long duration lag. The bond distribution rewards spread product and shorter duration, and rate-sensitive duration fills the weak side.

FEATURED ETF: Global X Copper Miners ETF COPX

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	COPX	Global X Copper Miners ETF	-7.52%
Cross-up	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	-4.45%
Cross-up	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	-3.40%
Cross-up	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	-0.90%
Cross-up	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	-0.50%
Cross-up	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	-0.41%
Cross-up	IVLU	iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF	+0.28%
Cross-up	VO	Vanguard Mid-Cap Index ETF	+0.34%
Cross-up	URTH	iShares MSCI World ETF	+0.38%
Cross-up	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF	+0.46%
Cross-up	IQLT	iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF	+0.55%
Cross-up	VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe Index ETF	+0.58%
Cross-up	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	+1.07%
Cross-up	VIG	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF	+1.09%
Cross-up	VYM	Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF	+1.33%
Cross-up	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF	+2.31%
Cross-up	XLV	Health Care Select Sector	+6.79%
Cross-down	XLP	Consumer Staples Select Sector	+2.29%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	COPX	Global X Copper Miners ETF	-8.00%
Cross-up	IVLU	iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF	-0.24%
Cross-up	URTH	iShares MSCI World ETF	-0.15%
Cross-up	IQLT	iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF	unch.
Cross-up	VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe Index ETF	unch.
Cross-down	XLV	Health Care Select Sector	+6.24%
Cross-down	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	+2.43%
Cross-down	SDY	SPDR S&P Dividend ETF	+2.34%
Cross-down	XLP	Consumer Staples Select Sector	+1.76%
Cross-down	JEPI	JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF	+1.15%
Cross-down	RSP	Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF	+0.98%
Cross-down	VIG	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF	+0.57%
Cross-down	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	+0.54%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	JNK	SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF	+0.14%
Cross-down	HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF	unch.

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	-0.66%
Cross-up	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF	-0.11%
Cross-up	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-up	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	unch.
Cross-down	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	+0.16%

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	GLD	SPDR Gold	-2.54%
Cross-up	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	-1.80%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	GLD	SPDR Gold	-3.05%
Cross-down	USMV	iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF	+1.88%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.