Tactical Trends: US Beta Cracks While Utilities and Asia Outperform

Benchmark outperformance survives in utilities, Asia, and selective growth

Equity participation broke lower into the September 8 close. Eighteen of 59 ETFs (31%, -25.4pp) hold above their 20-day moving average (20D MA), and 24 of 58 (41%, -3.5pp) hold above their ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Utilities XLU and emerging markets lead the holdout cluster. US broad beta, China, and India sit on the laggard side. Russell Growth IWF also outperforms the benchmark from below its price MA. The equity regime is defensive because benchmark-relative strength survives mainly in ex-US, utilities, and selective growth after broad price participation broke lower.

Fixed income shows only 2 of 17 ETFs above their price MA. EM debt, high yield, and preferred outperform the Aggregate Bonds AGG from below their price MAs. Treasuries and munis lag on a relative basis. Bond leadership concentrates in spread product and short-duration inflation protection.

Specialty participation is selective, with 8 of 15 ETFs above their price MA. Clean Energy ICLN and Momentum Factor MTUM crossed above both their price MAs and their ratio MAs vs the S&P 500 SPY. Commodity leadership concentrates in copper, oil, and broad commodity exposure. Real estate, biotech, and managed futures lag.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Copper Miners COPX, up 5.44% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20D MA. The COPX ratio vs the S&P 500 SPY also crossed above its 20-day ratio MA, and equity cross-timescale alignment is 32%. Cross-timescale leadership concentrates in commodity-linked and Asia-Pacific equity.

Utilities XLU, up 0.74% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20D MA and its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Financials XLF, up 0.03% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20D MA and its ratio MA vs the benchmark. US sector leadership rotated toward defense.

Short TIPS VTIP, up 0.14% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20D MA. Investment Grade Credit LQD and Preferred Stock PFF crossed above their ratio MAs vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG. Bond relative strength clusters in spread product and short-duration inflation protection.

FEATURED ETF: Global X Copper Miners ETF COPX

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	XLU	Utilities Select Sector	+0.74%
Cross-up	COPX	Global X Copper Miners ETF	+5.44%
Cross-down	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	+0.81%
Cross-down	SCHD	Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF	+0.64%
Cross-down	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	unch.
Cross-down	ACWV	iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF	-0.15%
Cross-down	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	-0.23%
Cross-down	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	-0.28%
Cross-down	EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF	-0.29%
Cross-down	URTH	iShares MSCI World ETF	-0.70%
Cross-down	XLV	Health Care Select Sector	-0.78%
Cross-down	XLF	Financial Select Sector	-0.88%
Cross-down	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	-0.93%
Cross-down	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF	-1.06%
Cross-down	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	-1.32%
Cross-down	DIA	SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF	-1.95%
Cross-down	INDA	iShares MSCI India ETF	-2.09%
Cross-down	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	-4.08%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	XLU	Utilities Select Sector	+1.67%
Cross-up	COPX	Global X Copper Miners ETF	+6.41%
Cross-down	ACWV	iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF	+0.77%
Cross-down	XLF	Financial Select Sector	unch.
Cross-down	INDA	iShares MSCI India ETF	-1.19%
Cross-down	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	-3.20%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	VTIP	Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF	+0.14%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	-0.10%
Cross-up	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	unch.

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	MTUM	iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF	+0.45%
Cross-up	ICLN	iShares Global Clean Energy ETF	+1.27%
Cross-down	IBB	iShares Biotechnology ETF	+3.65%
Cross-down	DBMF	iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF	-0.51%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	MTUM	iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF	+1.37%
Cross-up	ICLN	iShares Global Clean Energy ETF	+2.21%
Cross-down	IBB	iShares Biotechnology ETF	+4.61%
Cross-down	DBMF	iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF	+0.41%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.