Tactical Trends: International Equity and Value Lead, US Growth Slips

42 of 58 equity ETFs beat S&P 500 SPY; ex-US and low vol lead.

Defensive and international equity leadership defines July 30 at the close, with 36 of 59 equity ETFs (61%, +11.9pp on the day) above their 20-day moving average 20D MA and 42 of 58 (72%, unchanged on the day) above their 20-day ratio moving average versus S&P 500 SPY 20D ratio MA vs SPY. Low-volatility, developed ex-US, and value lead. US growth, Taiwan, and broader emerging markets lag. The equity regime is broad on both measures, and the negative 11pp price-relative gap places relative leadership ahead of price confirmation.

Fixed income leadership is narrow in price terms: 3 of 17 bond ETFs are above their 20D MA, concentrated in Preferred Stock PFF and short duration. Relative winners versus Aggregate Bonds AGG cluster in high yield, intermediate Treasuries, and short duration. Long duration and investment grade lag. Bond leadership is defensive on price and spread-oriented on a relative basis.

Specialty and commodities skew toward real assets: 8 of 15 specialty ETFs are above their 20D MA, with crypto, precious metals, and real estate in the leader cluster. Bitcoin Trust IBIT and Gold GLD crossed above their 20D MA. Biotechnology and semiconductors lag S&P 500 SPY on a relative basis, and agriculture lost relative ground versus SPY. The specialty and commodity mix is selective and real-asset heavy.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin Trust IBIT, up 7.94% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20-day moving average. Gold Miners GDX and Gold GLD also crossed above their 20-day moving averages. The specialty leader cluster centers on crypto and precious metals.

Japan EWJ crossed above its 20-day ratio moving average versus S&P 500 SPY, and Intl Momentum IMTM and Value Factor VLUE crossed above their 20-day ratio moving averages versus SPY. Russell 2000 IWM, US Broad Market VTI, and Communication Services XLC crossed below their 20-day ratio moving averages versus SPY. The relative rotation favors developed international and value exposures over broad US beta.

Preferred Stock PFF crossed above both its 20-day moving average and its 20-day ratio moving average versus Aggregate Bonds AGG, and High Yield Bonds JNK crossed above its 20-day ratio moving average versus AGG. Cross-timescale bond leaders cluster in short duration, high yield, and intermediate Treasuries, and long duration and investment grade fill the laggard cluster. The bond distribution separates spread exposure from rate-sensitive duration.

FEATURED ETF: iShares Bitcoin IBIT

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	-1.09%
Cross-up	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	-0.50%
Cross-up	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	unch.
Cross-up	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	+0.26%
Cross-up	URTH	iShares MSCI World ETF	+0.45%
Cross-up	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF	+1.04%
Cross-up	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	+3.13%
Cross-up	COPX	Global X Copper Miners ETF	+5.59%
Cross-down	SLYV	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF	-0.51%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	-0.55%
Cross-up	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	unch.
Cross-up	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	+0.12%
Cross-up	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	+0.81%
Cross-down	XLU	Utilities Select Sector	+0.30%
Cross-down	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF	-0.27%
Cross-down	IWM	iShares Russell 2000 ETF	-1.71%
Cross-down	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	-2.35%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	unch.
Cross-up	VCSH	Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	unch.

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	JNK	SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF	+0.67%
Cross-up	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	+0.80%

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	GLD	SPDR Gold	+1.77%
Cross-up	FTLS	First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF	+2.16%
Cross-up	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	+2.28%
Cross-up	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	+7.94%
Cross-down	DBMF	iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF	+1.05%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	IBB	iShares Biotechnology ETF	+0.46%

Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	SLV	iShares Silver	-0.15%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	DBA	Invesco DB Agriculture	+2.87%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.