Tactical Trends: Growth Reclaims the Lead in a Broad Equity Rebound

Price recovery spreads, but SPY-relative confirmation shrinks to seven ETFs.

Equity leadership narrows to growth at the July 9 close. 46 of 59 equity ETFs (78%, +18.6pp on the day) hold above their 20-day moving average (20D MA), but only 7 of 58 (12%, -17.2pp) hold above their 20-day ratio moving average vs the S&P 500 SPY (20D ratio MA vs SPY). Relative winners cluster in growth and selective cyclicals. Low-volatility, dividend, and developed ex-US recovery names occupy the laggard and divergent buckets. The 66pp price-relative gap matches a benchmark-led rebound.

Fixed income concentrates in credit and short duration, with 4 of 17 ETFs above their 20D MA. Relative strength vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG spans EM debt, high yield, and intermediate Treasuries. Long duration fills the laggard cluster. The bond cross-section rewards stability and selective duration.

Specialty leadership is selective, with 3 of 15 names beating the S&P 500 SPY and biotech as the clearest relative winner. Bitcoin proxies, managed futures, and REITs occupy the divergent bucket above their 20D MA. Broad commodities and metals fill the commodity laggard cluster. Diversification leadership is narrow.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Cross-timescale alignment reaches 69% in equity, and the relative stack centers on S&P SmallCap Growth SLYG and S&P Growth SPYG. Germany EWG and Japan EWJ reclaimed price support, but Global Min Vol ACWV and Intl Min Vol EFAV stay in the relative laggard cluster, so international recovery outpaces benchmark leadership.

7-10yr Treasuries IEF and Preferred Stock PFF crossed above their 20D ratio MA versus AGG, and Short Corporate VCSH crossed above its 20D MA. High-yield credit and short duration define the only price-positive bond cluster, so bond leadership splits between carry sectors and intermediate duration.

Biotech IBB is the clearest specialty leader, and its momentum z-score reaches +2.2. Managed Futures DBMF crossed below its 20D ratio MA versus SPY, and Broad Commodities PDBC, down 7.60% relative to SPY over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20-day ratio moving average. Non-equity diversification leadership concentrates in a small specialty subset.

FEATURED ETF: Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF PDBC vs SPY

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	EWG	iShares MSCI Germany ETF	+0.79%
Cross-up	XLY	Consumer Discretionary Select Sector	+1.05%
Cross-up	SLYV	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF	+1.87%
Cross-up	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF	+1.90%
Cross-up	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	+2.30%
Cross-up	XLK	Technology Select Sector	+2.66%
Cross-up	VB	Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF	+2.82%
Cross-up	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	+3.38%
Cross-up	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	+3.43%
Cross-up	EWT	iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF	+4.22%
Cross-up	IJR	iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF	+4.30%
Cross-up	IWM	iShares Russell 2000 ETF	+4.54%
Cross-down	XLP	Consumer Staples Select Sector	-0.37%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	-1.09%
Cross-up	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	+0.21%
Cross-up	EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil ETF	+1.76%
Cross-up	SLYG	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF	+4.39%
Cross-down	XLU	Utilities Select Sector	+1.00%
Cross-down	DIA	SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF	+0.91%
Cross-down	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	+0.17%
Cross-down	VIG	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF	+0.12%
Cross-down	SDY	SPDR S&P Dividend ETF	unch.
Cross-down	JEPI	JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF	unch.
Cross-down	SPYV	S&P 500 Value ETF	-0.28%
Cross-down	EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF	-0.52%
Cross-down	VYM	Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF	-0.54%
Cross-down	ACWV	iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF	-0.55%
Cross-down	EFAV	iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF	-0.71%
Cross-down	SCHD	Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF	-1.82%
Cross-down	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	-5.10%
Cross-down	XLE	Energy Select Sector	-5.91%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	VCSH	Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	+0.33%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	-0.75%
Cross-up	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	+0.11%

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF	+0.28%
Cross-up	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	+1.91%
Cross-up	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	+3.03%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	DBMF	iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF	-1.77%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	PDBC	Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF	-7.60%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.