Tactical Trends: Equity Leadership Contracts Under Broad Price Support

A 62pp price-relative gap keeps outperformance narrowly concentrated.

Equity leadership contracted at the close on August 10, with 54 of 59 ETFs (92%, -1.7pp) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and only 17 of 58 (29%, -6.9pp) above their 20-day ratio moving average vs S&P 500 SPY (20D ratio MA vs SPY), a 62pp price-relative gap. Price participation spans low-volatility, developed ex-US, and country exposures. Relative winners narrow to energy and select Asia and China, while low-volatility, developed ex-US, and small-cap US names fill the price-recovery bucket. The equity setup resembles broad price participation with outperformance concentrated in a narrow subset.

High-yield, EM debt, preferreds, and short-duration inflation protection lead vs Aggregate Bonds AGG, with 13 of 16 above their 20D ratio MA vs the benchmark. Treasuries and long investment grade lag in both price and relative terms. Bond leadership favors credit and shorter duration, and rate sensitivity limits absolute participation.

Specialty leadership is limited to precious metals, biotech, and min-vol vs S&P 500 SPY, while crypto, clean energy, and equity-adjacent growth lag; 10 of 15 hold above their 20D MA. Commodities add a separate hard-asset pocket, with oil, broad commodities, and agriculture above their 20D MA. The non-core cross-section splits between hard-asset strength and equity-adjacent weakness.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Cross-timescale equity alignment is 86%, with energy, growth, and global miners aligned on the relative upside, while dividend and value, emerging markets, and defensives dominate the aligned laggard cluster. Multi-horizon leadership concentrates in cyclical beta and leaves broad recovery themes without relative confirmation.

Muni Bonds MUB, TIPS TIP, and Short TIPS VTIP crossed above their 20D ratio MA versus Aggregate Bonds AGG, and 7-10yr Treasuries IEF and Investment Grade Credit LQD lag the benchmark. Relative bond leadership favors spread and shorter-duration segments, and long-rate exposure does not confirm the move.

Oil USO, up 6.90% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20-day moving average. Broad Commodities PDBC and Agriculture Basket DBA also crossed above their 20D MA. Commodity strength concentrates in energy and broad baskets, and hard assets form a separate absolute strength pocket outside equities.

FEATURED ETF: United States Oil Fund LP USO

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	XLE	Energy Select Sector	+6.06%
Cross-down	XLP	Consumer Staples Select Sector	+0.43%
Cross-down	EWY	iShares MSCI South Korea ETF	-2.92%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	XLV	Health Care Select Sector	+1.13%
Cross-up	XLE	Energy Select Sector	+2.79%
Cross-up	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	+5.75%
Cross-down	VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe Index ETF	+1.77%
Cross-down	IVLU	iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF	+1.42%
Cross-down	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	+1.39%
Cross-down	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF	+0.72%
Cross-down	URTH	iShares MSCI World ETF	+0.30%
Cross-down	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	+0.12%
Cross-down	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	-1.84%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	+0.15%
Cross-down	VGIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF	unch.
Cross-down	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF	unch.
Cross-down	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	unch.
Cross-down	VCIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	unch.
Cross-down	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	-0.23%
Cross-down	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond ETF	-0.25%
Cross-down	LQD	iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF	-0.51%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	MUB	iShares National Muni Bond ETF	-0.58%
Cross-up	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond ETF	-0.11%
Cross-up	VTIP	Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF	+0.28%

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	DBMF	iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF	+1.06%
Cross-down	ETHA	iShares Ethereum Trust ETF	+5.76%
Cross-down	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	+2.87%
Cross-down	ICLN	iShares Global Clean Energy ETF	-2.95%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	USMV	iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF	-0.10%
Cross-down	SMH	VanEck Semiconductor ETF	-5.77%

Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	DBA	Invesco DB Agriculture	+0.36%
Cross-up	PDBC	Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF	+5.50%
Cross-up	USO	United States Oil Fund LP	+6.90%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.