Tactical Trends: Equity Defensives and Value Join the Breakdown

Only 11 of 58 equity ETFs hold above their ratio MA vs SPY.

Equity breakdown reaches defensives and value at the September 15 close, with 5 of 59 ETFs (8%, -3.4pp on the day) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and 11 of 58 (19%, -3.5pp) above their ratio MA vs S&P 500 SPY. International low-volatility, dividend, and value exposures produced the fresh downside signals. Japan, Brazil, and energy define the small leadership cluster. The equity regime reads as a confirmed broad bear.

Fixed income leadership is limited to short duration, inflation-linked bonds, and high-yield credit, with 6 of 16 ETFs (38%) outperforming the Aggregate Bonds AGG. Treasuries, investment grade, and mortgages fill the laggard cluster. The bond cross-section favors stability and selected credit. Rate-sensitive duration trails.

Specialty weakness centers on crypto and low-volatility overlays: Ethereum Trust ETHA and Bitcoin Trust IBIT crossed below their 20D MA, and 5 of 15 ETFs (33%) outperform the S&P 500 SPY. Oil, agriculture, and broad commodity exposure hold the commodity leadership cluster, while copper is the main laggard. Commodity participation is selective.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Ethereum ETHA, up 26.39% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed below its 20D MA. Four specialty ETFs populate the price-below, benchmark-beating group vs S&P 500 SPY, so relative strength survives in a narrow pocket.

Asia-Pacific equity, energy, and U.S. tech hold daily, weekly, and monthly relative leadership vs S&P 500 SPY, while developed ex-US equity, emerging markets, and dividend-heavy U.S. equity fill the laggard cluster. The 19% alignment rate leaves cross-timescale confirmation sparse.

Short duration, inflation-linked bonds, and high-yield credit hold daily, weekly, and monthly relative leadership vs Aggregate Bonds AGG, while Treasuries, mortgages, and long duration lag. The 82% alignment rate makes the bond split coherent even with 0 of 17 ETFs above their 20D MA.

FEATURED ETF: iShares Ethereum Trust ETF ETHA

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	EFAV	iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF	+0.93%
Cross-down	IVLU	iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF	-0.36%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	IDV	iShares International Select Dividend ETF	+1.17%
Cross-down	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	-0.28%

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	ETHA	iShares Ethereum Trust ETF	+26.39%
Cross-down	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	+18.37%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	USMV	iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF	+0.78%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.