Tactical Trends: Dividend and Low-Vol Equity Lead as Growth and Ex-US Fade

Price breadth fell 28.8pp as leadership shifted to dividends and low vol

Defensive leadership defines our ETF universe on July 13, with 32 of 59 ETFs (54%, -28.8pp on the day) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and 18 of 58 ETFs (31%, +19.0pp) above their 20-day ratio moving average versus the S&P 500 SPY (20D ratio MA vs SPY). Low-volatility, dividend, quality, and equal-weight exposures lead on a relative basis, while growth, developed ex-US, and Asia form the laggard cluster. A 23pp price-relative gap leaves price participation ahead of leadership, so the equity read centers on defensive rotation inside a narrower price field.

Fixed income shows little absolute participation, with 1 of 17 ETFs (6%) above the 20D MA and leadership limited to short-duration inflation-linked exposure. Against the Aggregate Bonds AGG, 11 of 16 ETFs (69%) beat the benchmark, with short duration, Treasuries, and high yield leading while Corporate Credit VCIT and Long Treasury TLT lag. The bond split favors stability and selected duration over investment-grade rate sensitivity.

Specialty leadership centers on alternatives and real estate, with 7 of 15 ETFs above both their 20D MA and 20D ratio MA versus the S&P 500 SPY. Managed Futures DBMF leads, while Bitcoin Trust IBIT and gold-linked names lag. Oil and broad commodities outperform the S&P 500 SPY, while silver lags. The non-core bucket concentrates strength in alternatives, real estate, and energy-linked exposure.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Equity cross-timescale alignment is 53%, with Dividend Quality SCHD, Quality Factor QUAL, and High Dividend VYM in the daily, weekly, and monthly relative leader cluster. Dev. Markets EFA and Russell Growth IWF anchor the multi-horizon laggards. The multi-horizon read concentrates leadership in defensive income and quality.

Fixed income cross-timescale alignment is 65%. The key split runs between relative winners that are below their 20D MA and above the 20D ratio MA vs AGG, such as High Yield HYG and High Yield Bonds JNK, and relative losers such as Mortgage-Backed MBB and Corporate Credit VCIT. The bond cross-section rewards shorter duration and selected spread exposure on a relative basis, with long duration and investment-grade credit on the weak side.

Oil USO, down 8.57% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20-day moving average. Its ratio vs the S&P 500 SPY also crossed above the 20D ratio MA vs SPY, and Broad Commodities PDBC joined that relative move. Commodity strength clusters in energy and diversified exposure, while silver lags.

FEATURED ETF: United States Oil Fund LP USO

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	IDV	iShares International Select Dividend ETF	-2.77%
Cross-down	XLI	Industrial Select Sector	+3.23%
Cross-down	SLYG	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF	+3.10%
Cross-down	INDA	iShares MSCI India ETF	+2.09%
Cross-down	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	+1.13%
Cross-down	VB	Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF	+0.93%
Cross-down	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	+0.61%
Cross-down	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	+0.49%
Cross-down	IVLU	iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF	+0.18%
Cross-down	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	+0.14%
Cross-down	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	+0.10%
Cross-down	XLY	Consumer Discretionary Select Sector	unch.
Cross-down	IQLT	iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF	unch.
Cross-down	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF	-0.41%
Cross-down	VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe Index ETF	-0.45%
Cross-down	EWG	iShares MSCI Germany ETF	-0.50%
Cross-down	EWT	iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF	-0.56%
Cross-down	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	-0.64%
Cross-down	XLK	Technology Select Sector	-0.94%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	-5.21%
Cross-up	XLE	Energy Select Sector	-1.73%
Cross-up	EFAV	iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF	-1.32%
Cross-up	SCHD	Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF	-0.90%
Cross-up	ACWV	iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF	-0.54%
Cross-up	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	-0.35%
Cross-up	VYM	Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF	unch.
Cross-up	SPYV	S&P 500 Value ETF	+0.26%
Cross-up	VIG	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF	+0.33%
Cross-up	JEPI	JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF	+0.60%
Cross-up	RSP	Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF	+0.71%
Cross-up	SDY	SPDR S&P Dividend ETF	+0.93%
Cross-up	XLU	Utilities Select Sector	+2.60%
Cross-down	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	-0.23%
Cross-down	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	-1.67%

Fixed Income: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	JNK	SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-down	HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF	unch.

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	VCIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	unch.
Cross-down	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	-0.13%
Cross-down	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	-0.86%

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-down	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	+1.22%
Cross-down	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	-2.30%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF	-0.69%
Cross-up	DBMF	iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF	-0.47%
Cross-up	REET	iShares Global REIT ETF	-0.33%
Cross-up	FTLS	First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF	-0.28%
Cross-down	IBIT	iShares Bitcoin	-4.04%

Commodities: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	USO	United States Oil Fund LP	-8.57%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	USO	United States Oil Fund LP	-10.19%
Cross-up	PDBC	Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF	-3.71%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.