Tactical Trends: Defensives Overtake Tech Across the Equity Tape

Price participation broke lower while relative winners turned defensive

As of June 23, 23 of 59 equity ETFs (39%, -27.1pp on the day) sit above their 20-day moving average (20D MA), while 43 of 58 (74%, +3.5pp) hold above their 20-day ratio moving average vs S&P 500 SPY (20D ratio MA vs SPY). Consumer Staples XLP and Healthcare XLV crossed above both measures, and the price-relative gap widened to -35pp as technology, growth, and international beta moved into the laggard camp. The equity tape is a defensive rotation in which relative leadership survives inside a weaker price structure.

12 of 17 fixed income ETFs (71%, +11.8pp on the day) sit above their 20D MAs, but only seven beat the Aggregate Bonds AGG on a benchmark-relative basis. Long duration, EM debt, mortgages, municipals, and selected investment grade led relative to the benchmark, while High Yield HYG and short-duration investment grade recovered in price without the same confirmation. The bond tape is a price rebound with benchmark outperformance concentrated away from the core.

Biotech, infrastructure, real estate, momentum, and semiconductors lead relative to the S&P 500 SPY, even as specialty price breadth slipped to 6 of 15 ETFs after a 13.3pp drop. Gold, bitcoin proxies, miners, and clean energy lagged the benchmark, and Agriculture Basket DBA crossed above its 20D ratio MA vs SPY as Silver SLV sat on the commodity laggard side. The specialty and commodity mix is selective and defensive rather than a broad hard-asset bid.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Cross-timescale equity alignment sits at 47%, with US dividend and small-cap exposure, Asia-Pacific equity, Taiwan equity, and the momentum factor in the leader set across daily, weekly, and monthly views. China equity, Germany equity, and communication services sit in the laggard set across the same three horizons. Multi-horizon leadership is selective rather than index-wide.

South Korea EWY, with a +5.59% period return, crossed below its 20-day moving average. EWY also crossed below its 20D ratio MA versus S&P 500 SPY after a +7.05% relative gain, while Taiwan equity held in the three-horizon leader set. Asia leadership is split between Taiwan strength and Korea fade.

Long duration posted the top fixed income momentum z-score at +1.4. EM debt, mortgages, municipals, and selected investment grade sat on the relative leader side versus Aggregate Bonds AGG. Intermediate Treasuries, short-duration inflation protection, and short-duration investment grade lagged the benchmark. The bond rebound is strongest in duration and non-core sleeves rather than across the full stack.

FEATURED ETF: iShares MSCI South Korea ETF EWY

Other Technical Signal Events

EQUITY

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

XLP - Consumer Staples Select Sector · 20D perf: -0.58%

DVY - iShares Select Dividend ETF · +0.67%

XLRE - The Real Estate Select Sector · +1.05%

XLV - Health Care Select Sector · +1.97%

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

VLUE - iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF · 20D perf: +5.59%

EWY - iShares MSCI South Korea ETF · +5.59%

EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF · +2.49%

XLK - Technology Select Sector · +2.23%

XLB - Materials Select Sector · +1.53%

VWO - Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF · +0.76%

IYW - iShares U.S. Technology ETF · +0.69%

VIG - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF · +0.48%

VYM - Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF · +0.26%

VEA - Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF · +0.11%

EFA - iShares MSCI EAFE ETF · unch.

VGK - Vanguard FTSE Europe Index ETF · -0.13%

IQLT - iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF · -0.25%

SPYV - S&P 500 Value ETF · -0.41%

QQQ - Invesco QQQ · -0.43%

VT - Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF · -0.44%

QUAL - iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF · -0.46%

IVLU - iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF · -0.75%

VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF · -0.84%

URTH - iShares MSCI World ETF · -0.88%

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs SPY)

EWZ - iShares MSCI Brazil ETF · 20D relative perf: -3.90%

SCHD - Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF · -1.12%

EWU - iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF · -0.48%

ACWV - iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF · -0.42%

XLP - Consumer Staples Select Sector · +0.80%

XLV - Health Care Select Sector · +3.38%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs SPY)

EWY - iShares MSCI South Korea ETF · 20D relative perf: +7.05%

XLK - Technology Select Sector · +3.64%

IYW - iShares U.S. Technology ETF · +2.08%

QQQ - Invesco QQQ · +0.94%

FIXED INCOME

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

VCSH - Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF · 20D perf: +0.35%

IEF - iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF · +0.59%

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

None on the close

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs AGG)

None on the close

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs AGG)

HYG - iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF · 20D relative perf: -0.15%

SPECIALTY

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

None on the close

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

JEPQ - JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF · 20D perf: +0.34%

FTLS - First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF · -0.52%

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs SPY)

USMV - iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF · 20D relative perf: -0.75%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs SPY)

None on the close

COMMODITIES

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

None on the close

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

None on the close

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs SPY)

DBA - Invesco DB Agriculture · 20D relative perf: -2.15%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs SPY)

None on the close

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.