Tactical Market Trends: Equity Leadership Favors Defense
A 20pp negative gap keeps price confirmation limited
Defensive equity leadership defines the ETF universe at the November 3 close. 32 of 59 ETFs (54%, unchanged on the day) are above their 20-day moving averages (20D MA), and 43 of 58 (74%, -3.5pp) outperform the S&P 500 SPY. The 20pp negative price-relative gap keeps price confirmation limited. Relative winners cluster in low-volatility, value, and quality exposures. Technology, momentum, and Asia-linked equity fill the laggard side.
Fixed income price participation is broad, with 16 of 17 above their price MAs. Only 4 of 16 beat the Aggregate Bonds AGG. Relative winners are limited to long duration, mortgages, and munis. Short duration held 1 of 2 above their price MAs. Long duration held 1 of 1.
Specialty leadership is selective. 8 of 15 beat the S&P 500 SPY, and the leader cluster centers on biotech, real estate, and low-volatility exposures. Managed Futures DBMF and Clean Energy ICLN crossed above their ratio MAs vs the benchmark and both are below their price MAs. Oil is the only commodity relative leader vs the S&P 500 SPY. Copper lost relative ground.
Key Takeaways
Growth MDYG, down 3.22% over the trailing 20-day window, crossed above its 20D MA. Developed markets EFA crossed below its 20D MA.
Intl Momentum IMTM and China MCHI crossed below their 20-day ratio MAs vs the S&P 500 SPY. Equity alignment across daily, weekly, and monthly windows is 51%, and the synchronized relative leaders cluster in low-volatility, dividend, and quality exposures.
Long duration, mortgages, and munis lead fixed income vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG, and daily, weekly, and monthly alignment is 18%. Managed Futures DBMF and Clean Energy ICLN crossed above their 20-day ratio MAs vs the S&P 500 SPY and both are below their price MAs. Copper CPER crossed below its 20-day ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY.
Featured ETF: SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF MDYG
Technical Signals
Equity: Price vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | MDYG | SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF | -3.22% |
| Cross-down | EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE ETF | -1.09% |
Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | IMTM | iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF | -2.18% |
| Cross-down | MCHI | iShares MSCI China ETF | -2.30% |
Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-up | ICLN | iShares Global Clean Energy ETF | -5.14% |
| Cross-up | DBMF | iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | +0.72% |
Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA
| Signal | Ticker | Name | 20D rel perf |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-down | CPER | United States Copper LP | -0.64% |
Related
- SPY candlestick signals: forward returns by pattern and sentiment
- Fear and greed: today's market sentiment reading
- ETF trend metrics explained
Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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