Tactical Leadership Narrows Across Our ETF Universe

SUMMARY

At Tuesday's close, we see a more benchmark-led tape across our ETF universe. In equity, 60 of 62 ETFs (97%, unchanged on the day) held above their 20-day moving average, but only 31 of 61 (51%, -4.9pp) outperformed SPY, leaving a +46pp gap as leadership concentrates in ex-US cyclicals, emerging markets, biotech, clean energy and selective factor growth while low-volatility, US income/value, China and India lose ground. Fixed income is steadier in price than in leadership: 17 of 17 ETFs (100%, unchanged on the day) stayed above their 20-day moving average and 9 of 16 (56%, unchanged) outperformed AGG, with credit and the long end doing the relative work and leaving another +44pp gap.

Alternatives weakened on price even as relative performance improved from a low base: 7 of 9 ETFs (78%, -22.2pp) held above their 20-day moving average, while 3 of 9 (33%, +11.1pp) outperformed SPY. We therefore keep conviction measured at the close, because copper, bitcoin and silver are offset by fresh breaks in oil and broad commodities, while gold and listed real estate are recovering in price without leadership.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

KEY TAKEAWAYS

- Across daily, weekly and monthly windows, we still see the cleanest equity relative leadership in emerging markets, developed ex-US, Taiwan, South Korea, Brazil, US biotech/tech/small-caps and momentum/value, while low-volatility, China, India and US income equity remain persistent laggards. The latest relative crosses fit that map: Biotechnology IBB and Clean Energy ICLN strengthened versus SPY, while Financials XLF, Materials XLB, Industrials XLI and Small-Cap VB slipped after still-positive trailing relative returns, which reads as fading leadership rather than outright price damage.

- Within fixed income, Long Treasuries TLT crossed above its 20-day relative moving average versus AGG even though its 20-day return is still slightly negative, so we treat that as stabilization at the long end rather than established leadership. Muni Bonds MUB crossed below its relative 20-day moving average with a negative 20-day return, while our cross-timescale leaders remain EM debt, high-yield credit, Mortgage-Backed Securities MBB, Preferred PFF and Investment Grade VCIT; BNDX, IEF, IEI and VCSH are still price recoveries without relative leadership.

- In alternatives, Oil USO crossed below its 20-day moving average after a 7.7% 20-day return, alongside Broad Commodities PDBC, so the latest loss of price confirmation is occurring from a still-positive trailing profile. Silver SLV crossed above its 20-day relative moving average versus SPY despite a -5.5% 20-day return, which leaves it in early relative stabilization; cross-timescale confirmation still sits with copper via CPER, while GLD, REET, VNQ and XLRE are price recoveries without leadership.

FEATURED ETF — Highest 20-Day Absolute Momentum Gain: USO

OTHER TECHNICAL SIGNAL EVENTS

──── EQUITY ──────

⇄ Relative Strength Signals (vs SPY)

Above 20D moving average:

   Consumer Discretionary Select Sector XLY (20D relative perf: unch.)

   iShares Biotechnology ETF IBB (+1.16%)

   iShares Global Clean Energy ETF ICLN (+2.35%)

Below 20D moving average:

   Vanguard Small-Cap VB (20D relative perf: +2.07%)

   Materials Select Sector XLB (+1.60%)

   Financial Select Sector XLF (+1.43%)

   iShares International Select Dividend ETF IDV (+1.32%)

   Industrial Select Sector XLI (+0.58%)

   iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF EWU (+0.16%)

──── FIXED INCOME ──────

⇄ Relative Strength Signals (vs AGG)

Above 20D moving average:

   iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT (20D relative perf: -0.12%)

Below 20D moving average:

   iShares National Muni Bond ETF MUB (20D relative perf: -0.53%)

──── ALTERNATIVES ──────

▲ Absolute Price Signals

Below 20D moving average:

   United States Oil Fund LP USO (20D perf: +7.67%)

   Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF PDBC (+1.66%)

⇄ Relative Strength Signals (vs SPY)

Above 20D moving average:

   iShares Silver SLV (20D relative perf: -5.47%)

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Romain Gandon

CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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