SMH Surged 3.81% Wednesday as Growth Led

Growth-over-value extension defined Wednesday’s tape as Semiconductors SMH surged 3.81%, South Korea EWY climbed 3.50%, and Copper Miners COPX rose 3.70%, while Energy XLE fell 2.43% and Consumer Staples XLP slipped 0.66%. Rates matched that pattern. Long Treasuries TLT gained 1.07% and Investment Grade Credit LQD added 0.77%, in line with longer-duration equity leadership. Semiconductors SMH and South Korea EWY remain in strong 3M uptrends, while Energy XLE’s drop ran counter to its moderate 3M advance. Vol remains compressed across ACWV DIA and DVY. Gold Miners GDX stays compressed after climbing 3.08%.

Equity: Copper and Korea lead, energy and staples lag

Today's Movers

Outperformers: Copper Miners COPX +3.70% (3M: -4.4%), South Korea EWY +3.50% (3M: +33.2%)

Underperformers: Energy XLE -2.43% (3M: +9.1%), Consumer Staples XLP -0.66% (3M: -1.9%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: South Korea EWY +33.2%, Technology XLK +26.5%, Taiwan EWT +26.5%

Weak: India INDA -8.2%, China MCHI -6.8%, China Large Cap FXI -6.1%

Fixed Income: Duration leads in a counter-trend bond rally

Today's Movers

Outperformers: Long Treasuries TLT +1.07% (3M: -5.3%), Investment Grade Credit LQD +0.77% (3M: -2.2%)

Underperformers: Short TIPS VTIP -0.02% (3M: +1.2%), TIPS TIP +0.24% (3M: -0.3%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Short TIPS VTIP +1.1%, High Yield Bonds JNK +0.2%, High Yield HYG +0.1%

Weak: Long Treasuries TLT -5.3%, 7-10yr Treasuries IEF -2.5%, Investment Grade Credit LQD -2.2%

Specialty: Momentum semis lead, counter-trend miners rally

Today's Movers

Outperformers: Semiconductors SMH +3.81% (3M: +37.7%), Gold Miners GDX +3.08% (3M: -17.2%)

Underperformers: Managed Futures DBMF -0.67% (3M: +2.0%), Min Volatility USMV +0.11% (3M: +0.3%)

3M Leaderboard

Strong: Semiconductors SMH +37.6%, Momentum Factor MTUM +18.4%, Bitcoin Trust IBIT +15.6%

Weak: Gold Miners GDX -17.2%, Gold GLD -9.2%, Biotechnology IBB -4.0%

Notable Setups

Equity — Volatility Compression: Global Min Vol ACWV, Dow Jones DIA, High Dividend DVY

Fixed Income — Counter-trend rally: Long Treasuries TLT and Investment Grade Credit LQD (today's leaders, 3M laggards)

Fixed Income — Trend-break risk: Short TIPS VTIP (top decliner today -0.02%, 3M leader +1.2%)

Specialty — Counter-trend rally: Gold Miners GDX (top mover today +3.08%, 3M laggard -17.2%)

Specialty — Reversal setup: Gold Miners GDX (vol compression building in 3M underperformers)

Specialty — Volatility Compression: Managed Futures DBMF, Ethereum Trust ETHA, Gold Miners GDX

Specialty — Overbought: Covered Calls Nasdaq JEPQ

Cross-Asset Read

Growth-over-value extension defined the session, with longer-duration assets participating alongside higher-beta equity leadership while value and defensives lagged. The stress point is leadership concentration: EWY and SMH still sit atop the 3M leaderboard, JEPQ remains overbought, and TLT and LQD still stand against trailing multi-month weakness despite Wednesday’s rebound. The unresolved signal sits in the compression cluster across ACWV, DIA, DVY, and GDX, and its break determines whether the growth-over-value extension broadens or gives way to a narrower tape.

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.