Participation Holds, Leadership Narrows

At Monday's close, our ETF universe still showed a benchmark-led advance rather than genuine broad participation. In equities, 60 of 62 ETFs (97%, -1.6pp on the day) held above their 20-day moving average, yet only 19 of 61 (31%, -3.3pp) outperformed their benchmark, leaving a +66pp gap as leadership stayed concentrated in US growth, small caps, semis, and select EM Asia. Fixed income carried the same split: 17 of 17 ETFs (100%, unchanged on the day) held above their 20-day moving average while relative breadth fell to 8 of 16 (50%, -6.2pp), a +50pp gap with credit leading and Treasury duration fading.

Alternatives improved on the relative side as Global REITs REET and Real Estate VNQ both crossed above their ratios versus SPY on 20-day returns of +0.72% and +1.12%, helping keep 7 of 9 ETFs (78%, unchanged on the day) above their 20-day moving average and lifting relative breadth to 5 of 9 (56%, +11.1pp), still 22pp shy of price breadth. Even so, our conviction is capped because much of the apparent strength still sits in price-recovery-without-leadership groups — low-volatility and developed ex-US equities, Treasuries and core duration, plus copper and gold across alternatives.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

• Across equities, we see high cross-timescale alignment at 87%, with relative leaders concentrated in emerging markets (EEM, VWO), Taiwan equity (EWT), South Korea equity (EWY), and US equity (IJR, IWM, IYW, QQQ, SPYG), alongside momentum factor (MTUM), US/Global equity (SMH), value factor (VLUE), and Technology sector (XLK). Small-Cap VB crossed above its ratio versus SPY 20-day moving average on a +2.18% 20-day return, while Germany EWG, Intl Momentum IMTM, and India INDA crossed down on +2.99%, +3.71%, and -0.75% 20-day returns, matching the broader fade in developed ex-US, China and India, and low-volatility or dividend-heavy exposures.

• In fixed income, we see even stronger cross-timescale alignment at 94%, but the leadership is credit-heavy rather than duration-heavy. Int. Treasuries IEF crossed below its ratio versus AGG 20-day moving average on a -0.19% 20-day return, while multi-horizon relative leaders remain EM debt (EMB), high-yield credit (HYG, JNK), Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBB), Muni Broad (MUB), Preferred (PFF), and investment grade via VCIT. Treasuries from IEF to TLT, plus BNDX, TIP, VCSH, and VTIP, are above their 20-day moving averages without relative leadership, so stability is present but rate-sensitive duration is not leading our coverage.

• Within alternatives, we see only partial confirmation across timescales, with alignment at 56% and relative leadership narrowed to US real estate (VNQ, XLRE). Global REITs REET and Real Estate VNQ both crossed above their ratios versus SPY on +0.72% and +1.12% 20-day returns, while Copper CPER recorded the window's strongest 20-day absolute momentum at +4.70% yet crossed below its ratio versus SPY 20-day moving average. That leaves real estate, IBIT, and SLV carrying the relative side, while copper, GLD, PDBC, and USO lag within the same bucket.

FEATURED ETF — United States Copper LP CPER vs SPY

Other Technical Signal Events

EQUITY

Absolute Price Signals

Below 20D moving average

• Utilities Select Sector XLU (20D perf: +3.18%)

Relative Strength Signals (vs SPY)

Above 20D moving average

• Vanguard Small-Cap VB (20D relative perf: +2.18%)

Below 20D moving average

• iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF IMTM (20D relative perf: +3.71%)

• iShares MSCI Germany ETF EWG (+2.99%)

• iShares MSCI India ETF INDA (-0.75%)

FIXED INCOME

Relative Strength Signals (vs AGG)

Below 20D moving average

• iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF IEF (20D relative perf: -0.19%)

ALTERNATIVES

Relative Strength Signals (vs SPY)

Above 20D moving average

• iShares Global REIT ETF REET (20D relative perf: +0.72%)

• Vanguard Real Estate ETF VNQ (+1.12%)

Below 20D moving average

• United States Copper LP CPER (20D relative perf: +4.70%)

Romain Gandon

CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.