Leadership Broadens Beyond Mega-Cap Growth

SUMMARY

So far this week, the clearest shift within our ETF universe is a relative rotation away from growth leadership and toward a broader mix of cyclical and non-mega-cap equities. Small caps, materials, and biotech are improving versus SPY on 13-week measures, while technology, communication services, and QQQ are slipping on the same relative basis. Even so, this is still an early weekly read: much of our ETF coverage remains clustered near 13-week moving averages, including developed markets, quality, global equities, and several bond relationships, which leaves breadth and confirmation incomplete.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

- Relative leadership is widening as IJR, XLB, and IBB strengthen versus SPY while QQQ, XLK, and XLC lose ground.

- The message is rotational rather than outright directional, with no absolute price crosses across the ETF universe so far this week.

- Confirmation is limited by a dense group of ETFs still sitting near key 13-week relative inflection points, especially in international equities, factors, and fixed income.

BOTTOM LINE

Our medium-horizon read is turning less concentrated in large-cap growth leadership, but we would want a weekly close to confirm that this broadening move is durable. Until then, the rotation is notable, not fully settled.

TECHNICAL SIGNAL EVENTS

ABSOLUTE PRICE SIGNALS

None

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RELATIVE STRENGTH SIGNALS

Above 13W moving average:

IBB / SPY - iShares Biotechnology ETF

Ratio: 0.2562 | 13W Relative Return: +2.59%

Invalidation: 0.2512 (-1.96%)

IJR / SPY - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF

Ratio: 0.1917 | 13W Relative Return: +7.36%

Invalidation: 0.1864 (-2.79%)

XLB / SPY - Materials Select Sector

Ratio: 0.0761 | 13W Relative Return: +14.12%

Invalidation: 0.0731 (-3.88%)

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Below 13W moving average:

QQQ / SPY - Invesco QQQ

Ratio: 0.8895 | 13W Relative Return: -1.73%

Invalidation: 0.8945 (+0.56%)

XLC / SPY - Communication Services Select Sector

Ratio: 0.1687 | 13W Relative Return: -1.25%

Invalidation: 0.1706 (+1.13%)

XLK / SPY - Technology Select Sector

Ratio: 0.2054 | 13W Relative Return: -3.38%

Invalidation: 0.2074 (+0.98%)

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NEAR KEY MOVING-AVERAGE LEVELS

ABSOLUTE PRICE

Hovering near 13W moving average:

VTIP - Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities

Price: $49.73 | 13W Return: +0.59%

ICLN - iShares Global Clean Energy ETF

Price: $18.03 | 13W Return: +8.48%

DVY - iShares Select Dividend ETF

Price: $150.02 | 13W Return: +5.99%

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RELATIVE STRENGTH

Hovering near 13W moving average:

VEA / SPY - Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets

Ratio: 0.0969 | 13W Relative Return: +6.34%

VT / SPY - Vanguard Total World Stock

Ratio: 0.2115 | 13W Relative Return: +2.42%

VGIT / AGG - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury

Ratio: 0.5996 | 13W Relative Return: -0.06%

VTI / SPY - Vanguard Total Stock Market

Ratio: 0.4954 | 13W Relative Return: +0.40%

IEI / AGG - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF

Ratio: 1.1947 | 13W Relative Return: -0.00%

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