Intermediate Trends: Growth Leadership Separates From Dividend and Developed Markets

US growth and healthcare define the relative winners now

Growth leadership separates from the field as of September 18, with 25 of 59 ETFs (42%, -20.3pp on the week) holding above their 13-week MAs and only 16 of 58 ETFs (28%, -6.9pp) above their ratio MAs vs the S&P 500 SPY, concentrated in US growth, healthcare, technology, energy, and Asia-Pacific equity. Thirteen price cross-downs hit dividend, value, quality, China, and European exposures, with Select Dividend DVY and Dev. Markets EFA among the breaks. The 15pp price-relative gap narrowed from 29pp last week, so the equity setup is selective leadership with price damage outpacing benchmark-relative deterioration.

Fixed income shows no price sponsorship, with 0 of 17 ETFs above their 13-week MAs, and relative winners vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG are limited to high yield, EM debt, preferreds, short duration, and Global Bonds BNDX. 3-7yr Treasuries IEI crossed below its ratio MA, and the bond hierarchy is concentrated in credit and short duration, with 88% cross-timescale alignment separating those groups from Treasury rate sensitivity.

Specialty leadership vs the S&P 500 SPY is concentrated in crypto-linked funds, gold miners, bullion, and equity income, with 8 of 15 ETFs above their ratio MAs, and Momentum Factor MTUM crossed above its 13-week MA but occupies the price-above, benchmark-lagging bucket. Copper led commodities as Copper CPER crossed above its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY and agriculture lagged, so specialty and commodity strength centers on hard assets and crypto.

13-Week Intermediate Breadth

Key Takeaways

Healthcare XLV, up 10.98% relative to SPY over the trailing 13-week window, crossed above its 13-week ratio moving average (13W ratio MA). Russell Growth IWF and Nasdaq 100 QQQ also crossed above their ratio MAs vs the S&P 500 SPY, yet cross-timescale alignment in equity is only 32%. Healthcare and large-cap growth lead a narrow aligned cluster.

EM Sovereign Bonds EMB crossed above its ratio MA vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG, and Global Bonds BNDX joined the same relative winner cluster as 3-7yr Treasuries IEI crossed below. Credit and international duration outrank Treasury rate sensitivity, and 88% cross-timescale alignment gives that split internal agreement.

Momentum Factor MTUM crossed above its 13-week MA after an 8.35% 13-week return, yet its ratio sits below its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Min Volatility USMV crossed below its 13-week MA, and Copper CPER crossed above its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Specialty price recovery lacks broad benchmark confirmation, and commodity leadership is selective.

FEATURED ETF: Health Care Select Sector XLV vs SPY

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-down	XLF	Financial Select Sector	+4.6%
Cross-down	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	+4.1%
Cross-down	EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF	+4.0%
Cross-down	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	+3.1%
Cross-down	SPYV	S&P 500 Value ETF	+2.9%
Cross-down	JEPI	JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF	+2.3%
Cross-down	IQLT	iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF	+1.5%
Cross-down	EWG	iShares MSCI Germany ETF	+1.5%
Cross-down	VYM	Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF	+0.7%
Cross-down	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	+0.5%
Cross-down	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF	-1.3%
Cross-down	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	-1.4%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	-4.4%
Cross-up	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	-1.8%
Cross-up	XLV	Health Care Select Sector	+11.0%
Cross-down	SCHD	Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF	+4.5%
Cross-down	ACWV	iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF	+2.7%
Cross-down	XLF	Financial Select Sector	+2.6%
Cross-down	IVLU	iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value Factor ETF	+1.6%
Cross-down	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	-0.5%
Cross-down	VEA	Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets Index ETF	-3.2%
Cross-down	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	-3.3%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	-0.2%
Cross-up	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF	unch.
Cross-down	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	+0.4%
Cross-down	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond ETF	-0.1%

Specialty: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	MTUM	iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF	-8.4%
Cross-down	USMV	iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF	+4.7%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	CPER	United States Copper LP	+1.5%
Cross-down	DBA	Invesco DB Agriculture	+3.6%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.