Intermediate Trends: Equity Leadership Rotates to Low Volatility and Value

Broad bull breadth holds; the relative winners skew lower beta

Low-volatility and value leadership define equity conditions on July 24, with 39 of 59 ETFs (66%, +3.4pp) above their 13-week moving average (13W MA) and 40 of 58 (69%, +12.1pp) above their 13-week ratio moving average vs S&P 500 SPY (13W ratio MA vs SPY). Cross-timescale alignment is 53%. The relative leader cluster centers on low-volatility, value, and international income exposures, while US growth and Asia-Pacific equities fill much of the laggard set. The equity regime is broad bull, and leadership leans toward lower-beta and income-oriented exposures.

Fixed income shows no price participation, with 0 of 17 ETFs above their 13W MA. Relative strength vs Aggregate Bonds AGG clusters in shorter duration, intermediate Treasuries, and spread sectors, while long duration, investment grade, and EM debt lag. Bond participation concentrates in shorter duration and mortgage-heavy exposure.

Specialty exposure shows a split profile, with 7 of 15 ETFs above the 13W ratio MA vs S&P 500 SPY as infrastructure, real estate, and minimum-volatility names lead, while clean energy, crypto proxies, and precious metals lag. Commodity signals add a cleaner hard-asset pocket, with Oil USO and Broad Commodities PDBC crossing above both the 13W MA and the 13W ratio MA vs S&P 500 SPY. Hard-asset participation is cleaner than specialty beta.

13-Week Intermediate Breadth

Key Takeaways

Brazil EWZ, down 9.69% over the trailing 13-week window, crossed above its 13-week moving average. EWZ also crossed above its 13W ratio MA versus S&P 500 SPY, and China Large Cap FXI matched that price and relative turn. Country rotation shifts from outright weakness to early stabilization.

High-yield price broke below the 13W MA across two liquid proxies, and high-yield credit sits in the relative leader cluster versus Aggregate Bonds AGG beside mortgages and intermediate Treasuries. 7-10yr Treasuries IEF and Corporate Credit VCIT crossed below the benchmark on a relative basis. The bond split runs through duration and rate sensitivity, with price weakness across the bucket and selective relative strength in shorter duration.

Infrastructure PAVE crossed above its 13W MA and its 13W ratio MA versus S&P 500 SPY, but specialty alignment is 47%, with clean energy and crypto proxies lagging the bucket. Cross-timescale commodity alignment is 100%, and Copper CPER crossed above both weekly cuts. Hard assets show cleaner confirmation than specialty growth proxies.

FEATURED ETF: iShares MSCI Brazil ETF EWZ

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil ETF	-9.7%
Cross-up	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	-5.5%
Cross-up	XLB	Materials Select Sector	-0.9%
Cross-up	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	+2.4%
Cross-up	MDYG	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF	+3.4%
Cross-down	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF	+3.9%
Cross-down	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	+2.9%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil ETF	-13.0%
Cross-up	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	-8.9%
Cross-up	XLB	Materials Select Sector	-4.5%
Cross-up	XLU	Utilities Select Sector	-2.8%
Cross-up	IDV	iShares International Select Dividend ETF	-2.5%
Cross-up	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	-1.3%
Cross-up	MDYG	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF	-0.4%

Fixed Income: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-down	JNK	SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-down	HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-down	VTIP	Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF	-0.1%
Cross-down	VCSH	Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	-0.1%
Cross-down	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	-0.4%
Cross-down	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	-1.1%
Cross-down	VGIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF	-1.2%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	unch.
Cross-up	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF	+1.1%
Cross-down	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	+0.8%
Cross-down	MUB	iShares National Muni Bond ETF	+0.2%
Cross-down	VCIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	-0.1%
Cross-down	IEF	iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF	-0.5%

Specialty: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	PAVE	Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF	+3.0%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	PAVE	Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF	-0.7%

Commodities: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	PDBC	Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF	+0.9%
Cross-up	USO	United States Oil Fund LP	+3.2%
Cross-up	CPER	United States Copper LP	+3.8%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	PDBC	Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF	-2.8%
Cross-up	USO	United States Oil Fund LP	-0.5%
Cross-up	CPER	United States Copper LP	unch.

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.