Intermediate Trends: Equities Reclaim the 13-Week Average as Leadership Slips

The 45pp price-relative gap leaves confirmation concentrated.

Equity breadth as of August 7 is broad, with 56 of 59 ETFs (95%, +23.7pp on the week) above their 13-week moving average (13W MA) and 29 of 58 (50%, -12.1pp) above their 13-week ratio moving average vs S&P 500 SPY (13W ratio MA vs SPY), a 45pp price-relative gap. Low-volatility, developed ex-US, and US technology hold the relative leader cluster, while dividend, mid-cap, and emerging-markets exposures lag the benchmark even after many of those ETFs moved back above their 13W MA. The 45pp price-relative gap matches a broad price rebound and selective benchmark leadership.

Fixed income leadership centers on credit and intermediate duration, with 11 of 16 ETFs (69%) above their 13-week ratio moving average vs Aggregate Bonds AGG (13W ratio MA vs AGG) and only 9 of 17 above their 13W MA. EM Sovereign Bonds EMB anchors the credit side. Mortgage-Backed MBB forms the defensive divergent pocket, and TIPS plus long duration lag the benchmark. The fixed income snapshot favors credit and the front-to-intermediate part of the curve.

Specialty relative confirmation is confined to 4 of 15 ETFs (27%) above their 13W ratio MA vs S&P 500 SPY, with biotech, low-volatility, gold miners, and Ethereum in the leader set while long/short equity and real estate lag. Oil USO crossed below its 13W MA, and copper, agriculture, and broad commodities also fell behind S&P 500 SPY. Specialty and commodities concentrate in defensive hard-asset pockets, while cyclical commodity beta weakens.

13-Week Intermediate Breadth

Key Takeaways

Cross-timescale equity alignment reaches 85%, with Japan EWJ, US Technology IYW, and Copper Miners COPX above their price and ratio moving averages across daily, weekly, and monthly windows, while Select Dividend DVY and Emerging Markets EEM occupy the laggard cluster. The 85% reading concentrates confirmation in a narrow mix of technology, Japan, and copper-linked equity.

Specialty relative leadership versus S&P 500 SPY concentrates in gold miners, low-volatility, biotech, and Ethereum. Ethereum ETHA, down 21.24% relative to SPY over the trailing 13-week window, crossed above its 13-week ratio moving average. Specialty relative confirmation concentrates in idiosyncratic pockets.

Fixed income relative leadership versus Aggregate Bonds AGG splits by duration, with 3-7yr Treasuries IEI, EM Sovereign Bonds EMB, and Mortgage-Backed MBB on the leader side, while TIPS TIP and long duration occupy the laggard side. Oil USO crossed below its 13-week moving average and its 13-week ratio moving average versus S&P 500 SPY, and Copper CPER, Agriculture Basket DBA, and Broad Commodities PDBC joined the commodity laggard cluster. The bond and commodity mix centers on intermediate-duration stability, and cyclical commodity beta weakens.

FEATURED ETF: iShares Ethereum Trust ETF ETHA vs SPY

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	-4.6%
Cross-up	XLY	Consumer Discretionary Select Sector	unch.
Cross-up	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF	unch.
Cross-up	IWF	iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF	+0.9%
Cross-up	QQQ	Invesco QQQ	+1.8%
Cross-up	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	+2.6%
Cross-up	COPX	Global X Copper Miners ETF	+2.7%
Cross-up	XLB	Materials Select Sector	+2.8%
Cross-up	MDYG	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF	+4.4%
Cross-up	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	+4.8%
Cross-up	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	+6.5%
Cross-up	XLK	Technology Select Sector	+7.2%
Cross-up	EWT	iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF	+7.3%
Cross-up	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	+8.6%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	COPX	Global X Copper Miners ETF	-2.2%
Cross-up	SPYG	S&P 500 Growth ETF	-0.3%
Cross-up	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF	+0.4%
Cross-up	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	+0.5%
Cross-up	IYW	iShares U.S. Technology ETF	+1.3%
Cross-down	VO	Vanguard Mid-Cap Index ETF	+2.3%
Cross-down	SDY	SPDR S&P Dividend ETF	+2.1%
Cross-down	DVY	iShares Select Dividend ETF	+2.0%
Cross-down	MDYV	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF	+1.3%
Cross-down	SPYV	S&P 500 Value ETF	+0.4%
Cross-down	JEPI	JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF	unch.
Cross-down	XLE	Energy Select Sector	-1.1%
Cross-down	IDV	iShares International Select Dividend ETF	-2.4%
Cross-down	XLRE	The Real Estate Select Sector	-2.8%
Cross-down	XLP	Consumer Staples Select Sector	-3.1%
Cross-down	INDA	iShares MSCI India ETF	-3.9%
Cross-down	EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil ETF	-13.2%

Fixed Income: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	-2.1%
Cross-up	VGIT	Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Index ETF	-0.4%
Cross-up	IEI	iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF	-0.3%
Cross-up	BNDX	Vanguard Total International Bond Index ETF	+0.3%
Cross-up	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	+0.3%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	-1.5%
Cross-up	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	unch.
Cross-down	TIP	iShares TIPS Bond ETF	-0.5%

Specialty: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-up	GLD	SPDR Gold	-8.1%
Cross-up	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	-5.0%
Cross-up	JEPQ	JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF	+3.5%
Cross-up	PAVE	Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF	+3.5%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	ETHA	iShares Ethereum Trust ETF	-21.2%
Cross-up	GDX	VanEck Gold Miners ETF	-9.6%
Cross-down	REET	iShares Global REIT ETF	-1.3%
Cross-down	VNQ	Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF	-2.2%
Cross-down	FTLS	First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF	-2.5%

Commodities: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-down	USO	United States Oil Fund LP	-11.7%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-down	CPER	United States Copper LP	-0.8%
Cross-down	DBA	Invesco DB Agriculture	-6.0%
Cross-down	PDBC	Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF	-9.2%
Cross-down	USO	United States Oil Fund LP	-16.0%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.