Tactical Trends: Emerging Markets and Growth Reclaim the 20-Day Line

Price participation rebounds faster than benchmark-relative leadership

Equity participation in the ETF universe leans toward emerging markets and US growth at the close on September 21, with 20 of 59 equity ETFs (34%, +17.0pp on the day) above their 20-day moving average (20D MA) and 10 of 58 (17%, unchanged) above their ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Emerging markets EEM and Communication Services XLC added confirmed price and ratio cross-ups. Low-volatility, small-cap US, and developed ex-US form the laggard cluster.

Fixed income shows no price participation, with 0 of 17 ETFs above their own 20D MA. Relative winners vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG are limited to credit, international aggregate, and long duration. Treasuries, mortgage-backed, and inflation-linked funds lag.

Specialty relative leadership vs the S&P 500 SPY centers on crypto-linked funds, semiconductors, and momentum. Long/short equity and clean energy trade above their own 20-day averages and below their ratio MA vs SPY. Silver SLV crossed below its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

Intl Momentum IMTM, China MCHI, and Quality Factor QUAL crossed above their own 20-day averages and each stays below its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Japan EWJ crossed below its ratio MA vs SPY after a 1.63% 20-day relative gain.

Fixed-income alignment is 88%. Credit, international aggregate, and long duration populate the relative leader side vs the Aggregate Bonds AGG from below their own price averages. Short TIPS VTIP crossed below its ratio MA vs AGG.

Broad Commodities PDBC crossed below its ratio MA vs the S&P 500 SPY. Silver SLV crossed below its 20-day ratio moving average vs SPY (20D ratio MA vs SPY) after a 6.12% relative decline over the trailing 20-day window. Crypto-linked funds and semiconductors anchor the specialty relative leader cluster.

FEATURED ETF: iShares Silver SLV vs SPY

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	MCHI	iShares MSCI China ETF	-2.98%
Cross-up	IMTM	iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF	-0.74%
Cross-up	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	unch.
Cross-up	VLUE	iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF	+0.19%
Cross-up	URTH	iShares MSCI World ETF	+0.30%
Cross-up	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	+0.33%
Cross-up	VTI	Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF	+0.76%
Cross-up	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF	+1.33%
Cross-up	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF	+2.55%
Cross-up	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	+3.35%
Cross-down	XLE	Energy Select Sector	-1.27%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-up	EEM	iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF	+1.26%
Cross-up	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	+2.05%
Cross-down	EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan ETF	+1.63%
Cross-down	XLE	Energy Select Sector	-2.51%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	VTIP	Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF	unch.

Specialty: Price vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D perf
Cross-up	ICLN	iShares Global Clean Energy ETF	+1.17%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	FTLS	First Trust Long/Short Equity ETF	+0.18%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 20-day MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	20D rel perf
Cross-down	PDBC	Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF	+2.93%
Cross-down	SLV	iShares Silver	-6.12%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.