Intermediate Trends: Equal-Weight and Small-Cap Break Lower This Week

Price participation now outruns relative leadership across equities

Equal Weight S&P 500 RSP and Small-Cap VB crossed below their 13-week averages by the September 11 close, and 37 of 59 equity ETFs (63%, -22.0pp on the week) hold above their 13-week moving average (13W MA) while 20 of 58 (34%, -12.1pp) outperform the S&P 500 SPY. The 28pp price-relative gap narrowed from 38pp last week. Low-volatility, Asia-Pacific, and Brazil sit in both leader buckets, while U.S. size, China, and developed ex-US weakened against the benchmark. The equity configuration is selective: price participation exceeds relative leadership, and much of the surviving breadth sits in recovery rather than established leadership.

Fixed income lost price support across our coverage, with 0 of 17 above their 13-week average, and relative winners vs Aggregate Bonds AGG are limited to high yield, preferreds, and short duration. Long-duration Treasuries, mortgages, and investment grade lag the benchmark, so bond leadership concentrates in short duration and credit.

Specialty leadership clusters in 8 of 15 relative winners led by Managed Futures DBMF, gold, and bitcoin vs the S&P 500 SPY, while semiconductors, infrastructure, and real estate populate the laggard side. Oil and broad commodity exposure lead against the S&P 500 SPY, and Copper CPER crossed below its ratio moving average vs SPY, so specialty and commodity strength concentrates in alternatives and hard assets.

13-Week Intermediate Breadth

Key Takeaways

Technology XLK and Communication Services XLC crossed above their ratio moving averages vs the S&P 500 SPY even as trailing 13-week relative returns stand at down 1.58% and down 2.11%. The pair marks early relative stabilization inside U.S. growth, with negative 13-week returns leaving leadership unconfirmed.

China relative leadership weakened against the S&P 500 SPY. China Large Cap FXI, down 4.68% relative to SPY over the trailing 13-week window, crossed below its 13-week ratio moving average (13W ratio MA). China MCHI also crossed below its 13-week price average. China exposure splits between price-only recovery in FXI and outright price damage in MCHI.

Fixed income alignment reaches 82% across daily, weekly, and monthly views, and relative winners vs Aggregate Bonds AGG are confined to high yield and short duration, led by High Yield HYG and Short Corporate VCSH. EM Sovereign Bonds EMB, Mortgage-Backed MBB, and long-duration Treasuries lag the benchmark. Bond leadership concentrates in shorter duration and selected credit.

FEATURED ETF: iShares China Large-Cap ETF FXI vs SPY

Other Technical Signal Events

Equity: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-down	DIA	SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF	+2.9%
Cross-down	VIG	Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index ETF	+2.0%
Cross-down	RSP	Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF	+1.9%
Cross-down	VO	Vanguard Mid-Cap Index ETF	+1.8%
Cross-down	VGK	Vanguard FTSE Europe Index ETF	+1.8%
Cross-down	QUAL	iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF	+1.7%
Cross-down	SDY	SPDR S&P Dividend ETF	+0.9%
Cross-down	INDA	iShares MSCI India ETF	+0.5%
Cross-down	SLYV	SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF	-0.2%
Cross-down	VB	Vanguard Small-Cap Index ETF	-0.7%
Cross-down	MDYV	SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Value ETF	-0.7%
Cross-down	XLB	Materials Select Sector	-2.0%
Cross-down	MCHI	iShares MSCI China ETF	-2.8%

Equity vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	XLC	Communication Services Select Sector	-2.1%
Cross-up	XLK	Technology Select Sector	-1.6%
Cross-down	XLV	Health Care Select Sector	+4.5%
Cross-down	EWG	iShares MSCI Germany ETF	unch.
Cross-down	URTH	iShares MSCI World ETF	unch.
Cross-down	EFA	iShares MSCI EAFE ETF	unch.
Cross-down	EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF	-0.2%
Cross-down	VT	Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF	-0.6%
Cross-down	IQLT	iShares MSCI Intl Quality Factor ETF	-0.6%
Cross-down	VWO	Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets Index ETF	-1.8%
Cross-down	FXI	iShares China Large-Cap ETF	-4.7%

Fixed Income: Price vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W perf
Cross-down	JNK	SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF	-0.1%
Cross-down	HYG	iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF	-0.2%
Cross-down	VTIP	Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF	-0.3%
Cross-down	VCSH	Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond Index ETF	-0.4%
Cross-down	PFF	iShares Preferred and Income Securities ETF	-1.6%

Fixed Income vs AGG: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-down	EMB	iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF	unch.
Cross-down	MBB	iShares MBS ETF	-0.3%

Specialty vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-up	DBMF	iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF	+1.0%
Cross-down	USMV	iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF	+0.7%

Commodities vs SPY: Price Ratio vs 13-week MA

Signal	Ticker	Name	13W rel perf
Cross-down	CPER	United States Copper LP	-4.1%

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.