Daily Tactical: Equity Rebound Turns Benchmark-Led

Price participation recovered faster than relative leadership

At the close, equities across our ETF universe regained price footing faster than they rebuilt leadership. 47 of 59 ETFs (80%, +8.5pp) held above their 20-day moving average, but only 14 of 58 ETFs (24%, +8.6pp) beat the S&P 500 SPY, leaving a +56pp gap. The strongest relative participation came from US growth, technology, healthcare, and selected Asia and Europe. Low-volatility, small caps, copper-linked equity, and broader emerging-market exposure recovered in price without keeping up.

Fixed income remained the defensive part of our coverage. Just 3 of 17 ETFs (18%, +11.8pp) held above their 20-day moving average, while 6 of 16 ETFs (38%, -6.2pp) outperformed the Aggregate Bonds AGG, leaving a -20pp gap as credit and international aggregate held up better than rate-sensitive Treasuries and long duration. Credit led duration. Short-duration resilience still reflected stability rather than risk appetite.

Specialty recovered in price without broad confirmation, with 10 of 15 ETFs (67%, +6.7pp) above their 20-day moving average but only 3 of 15 ETFs (20%, unchanged on the day) beating the S&P 500 SPY as semiconductors, clean energy, and momentum carried the relative leadership. Commodities softened at the margin. Broad Commodities PDBC crossed below its 20-day moving average even as oil and copper-linked exposure remained firmer elsewhere in our coverage.

20-Day Tactical Breadth

Key Takeaways

• Taiwan EWT with a +6.97% period relative return versus SPY crossed above its 20-day ratio moving average. Alongside South Korea and US growth leadership, Asia tech-linked equity held the strongest relative camp across timescales. China, India, low-volatility, and equal-weighted US exposure stayed on the weaker side of our coverage.

• In fixed income, High Yield HYG and High Yield Bonds JNK crossed above their 20-day moving averages, while Investment Grade Credit LQD crossed above its 20-day ratio moving average versus AGG and 3-7yr Treasuries IEI plus Corporate Credit VCIT crossed below. Credit remained relatively firmer than government duration. The short-duration outperformance in our fixed-income breadth still read as ballast rather than a risk-on signal.

• Within specialty, Semiconductors SMH, Clean Energy ICLN, and Momentum MTUM were the only relative leaders versus the S&P 500 SPY. Biotechnology IBB joined REIT and low-volatility overlays as price recoveries that still lagged the benchmark. In commodities, Broad Commodities PDBC broke below its 20-day moving average even as oil and copper-linked exposures stayed the firmer absolute pockets across the broader commodity slate.

FEATURED ETF — iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF EWT vs SPY

Other Technical Signal Events

EQUITY

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

• SDY - SPDR® S&P Dividend ETF · 20D perf: -0.39%

• SLYV - SPDR® S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF · +0.21%

• IJR - iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF · +0.52%

• COPX - Global X Copper Miners ETF · +0.68%

• XLY - Consumer Discretionary Select Sector · +0.82%

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

None on the close

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs SPY)

• XLV - Health Care Select Sector · 20D relative perf: -3.37%

• VGK - Vanguard FTSE Europe · -2.09%

• EWG - iShares MSCI Germany ETF · -2.04%

• IDV - iShares International Select Dividend ETF · -0.76%

• VEA - Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets · -0.39%

• EWT - iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF · +6.97%

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs SPY)

• XLE - Energy Select Sector · 20D relative perf: -1.01%

FIXED INCOME

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

• HYG - iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF · 20D perf: unch.

• JNK - SPDR® Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF · unch.

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

None on the close

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs AGG)

• LQD - iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF · 20D relative perf: unch.

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs AGG)

• VCIT - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond · 20D relative perf: unch.

• IEI - iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF · unch.

SPECIALTY

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

• IBB - iShares Biotechnology ETF · 20D perf: -1.44%

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

None on the close

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs SPY)

None on the close

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs SPY)

None on the close

COMMODITIES

↗ Price breakouts (cross-up 20D MA)

None on the close

↘ Price breakdowns (cross-down 20D MA)

• PDBC - Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF · 20D perf: +2.63%

↗ Leadership gains (cross-up 20D MA vs SPY)

None on the close

↘ Leadership losses (cross-down 20D MA vs SPY)

None on the close

Romain Gandon
CEO, Quantlake

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.