November 16, 2025
Gold and Clean Energy Shine as Market Momentum Splinters
A clear divide has opened across alternative ETFs, with commodities and innovation themes powering ahead while crypto and income plays slip further behind. The past week sharpened these contrasts, revealing a market increasingly split between assets riding structural tailwinds and those struggling to regain their footing.
Gold’s resurgence defies gravity
Momentum in alternative ETFs has fractured along distinct thematic lines. As of November 14, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) leads the three-month trailing rate-of-change (ROC) rankings at 30.7%, followed by iShares Global Clean Energy (ICLN) at 20.7% and iShares Biotechnology (IBB) at 18.4%. All three remain firmly in the top quartile on a 12-month basis, underscoring the staying power of commodity-linked and innovation-driven exposures.
Crypto sits at the other extreme. iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has slumped to -19.5%, its lowest point in a year and deep in the bottom quartile. Yield and defensive names such as PFF (-0.0%) and USMV (1.1%) continue to languish as investors show limited appetite for safety-first positioning.
Diverging momentum sends clear signals
Weekly shifts reinforce the split. GDX added another 5.7 ROC points, confirming a breakout with accelerating strength above its median trend. QYLD also logged a breakout—though from a much lower base—while ICLN gave back 8.3 points but still holds a top-three position.
At the opposite end, IBIT deteriorated by another 8.5 points, extending its breakdown and setting a fresh low. PFF slipped into negative ROC territory, highlighting continuing pressure on yield strategies.
Looking across a broader timeline, ICLN and IBB hover near their one-year highs, both sitting above the 90th percentile. Only IBB, however, shows a medium mean-reversion signal, suggesting some extension risk. GDX’s profile is particularly striking: despite its surge, it remains 23.3 points below its one-year high, a combination of high continuation potential and limited reversion risk—an unusually favorable setup.
IBIT’s fragility stands out. Now near the 1.9th percentile, it shows minimal mean-reversion pressure and no sign of momentum recovery. PAVE joins IBIT in breakdown territory, weakened by both soft momentum and further deceleration.
Leadership narrows as laggards lose ground
Compared with the prior week, leadership has narrowed rather than rotated. Gold and clean energy continue to anchor the top, while crypto and yield-oriented ETFs deepen their underperformance. Infrastructure and real estate exposures—PAVE and VNQ—remain muted, with PAVE now decisively breaking down. Factor strategies such as USMV and MTUM show little change, reinforcing the widening gap between growth- and commodity-driven strength and sluggish defensive or income-heavy themes.
Our take:
Gold and clean energy have cemented their leadership positions, with biotechnology close behind. Crypto's momentum has weakened further, reaching a new low, while yield and defensive strategies continue to stagnate. The data points to a widening split: commodity-linked and innovation-focused ETFs remain firmly in favor, while income-oriented and traditional real-asset exposures struggle to keep pace.
