May 17, 2025
Data is the Narrative
Current ETF Rankings by 3-Month ROC (as of May 16, 2025)
Bitcoin (IBIT) retains the top spot at +19.8%, though it eased slightly this week. Momentum Factor (MTUM) surged to +13.2%, overtaking other growth-focused ETFs. Clean Energy (ICLN) follows closely with a 12.5% gain. Gold Miners (GDX) fell back but remains up 11.3% overall. Semiconductors (SMH) and Infrastructure (PAVE) rose 9.5% and 9.2%, respectively, driven by renewed risk appetite.
Week-over-Week ROC Change (May 9 to May 16)
Semiconductors (SMH) and Momentum (MTUM) led gains, each adding 13.5 points. Technology (IYW) followed with an 11.5-point rise. Infrastructure (PAVE) gained 9.3 points, reflecting broader strength in cyclical sectors. Meanwhile, Gold Miners (GDX) dropped 15.5 points, the sharpest decline among all ETFs.
Sign Changes: 6 ETFs Turn Positive
Six ETFs reversed negative trends to positive 3-month ROC:
SMH: -4.0% to +9.5%
IYW: -4.1% to +7.4%
MTUM: -0.3% to +13.2%
USMV: -2.2% to +0.5%
PAVE: -0.1% to +9.2%
FTLS: -3.8% to +0.8%
Strengthening Trends
Semiconductors (SMH) advanced 30.9 points since mid-April, now ranked fifth. Momentum Factor (MTUM) gained 26.1 points, moving to second place. Both were among the weakest performers a month ago but now lead the recovery.
Weakening Trends
Min Volatility (USMV) is losing momentum, slipping 3 points over the past month, now ranked ninth.
Distance from Peak Analysis
Six ETFs are now at 3-month ROC peaks: SMH, IYW, MTUM, PAVE, ICLN, and FTLS.
ETFs furthest from peaks:
GDX: 16.3 points below peak
IBB: 14.7 points below peak
VNQ: 7.4 points below peak
Distance from Trough Analysis
Gold Miners (GDX) sits just 1.5 points above its recent trough, while Semiconductors (SMH) and Bitcoin (IBIT) remain the furthest above, up 40.4 and 40 points, respectively.
Our Take
Tech and growth sectors are leading the market rebound, with six ETFs turning positive this week. Semiconductors and Momentum have emerged as standout gainers, both recovering sharply from April lows. Bitcoin remains the strongest performer, despite some retracement, while Gold Miners' drop underscores continued volatility in alternative assets.
Happy Long-Term Investing!